Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dropped below the $120,000 threshold, retracting after achieving a new all-time high exceeding $124,000 last week. As per the latest market updates, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the last 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak.
This price fluctuation indicates that the asset is currently consolidating after its recent surge, with market participants closely monitoring for its next directional shift.
In the meantime, analysts are turning to on-chain data for insights on Bitcoin’s potential path. One such perspective is provided by PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, who analyzed the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) using various profit and loss metrics.
The results indicate that while profit-taking has commenced, current selling levels are still below historical extremes seen in previous bull market peaks.
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Tracking Long-Term Holder Signals
PelinayPA’s LTH analysis employs multiple indicators to assess the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of long-term holders.
Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above the cost basis, help identify when Bitcoin approaches zones historically linked with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC nears the +500% band, it has frequently corresponded with increased selling activity and subsequent cycle peaks.
The analysis also includes a Spending Binary Indicator, reflecting the intensity of LTH selling, along with “High Spending” signals that typically materialize near market tops and “Bottom Alerts” that appear during major corrections.
Examining past cycles, PelinayPA highlighted 2017 and 2021, where severe downturns followed significant long-term holder selling, while the 2022–2023 bottom featured multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000–$20,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin remains within the 150%–350% profit band, indicating potential for further growth; however, the risk of a market top increases as the asset approaches higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they are considerably lower than levels observed in earlier cycle peaks.
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term
In outlining potential scenarios, PelinayPA indicated that Bitcoin may be range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upward momentum.
However, if accumulation and broader demand persist, the price could rise into the $124,000–$178,000 range, aligned with the higher profit thresholds on the LTH model.
For the mid-term outlook extending into late 2025, the analyst warned that if long-term holder selling surges like in 2021, Bitcoin could be approaching a cycle top. In that case, the asset might peak above $150,000 before a significant correction occurs.
Looking ahead to 2026, the lack of new bottom alerts implies that the market remains in the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle, rather than transitioning to a confirmed bear market.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
