Betting Markets Predict Bitcoin Will Stay Under $100K Throughout 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) may stay below $100,000 throughout 2025, following a market decline after the US Fed’s rate cut decision on Wednesday.

Key insights:

• Currently, there is only a 30% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before January 1, as per prediction markets.

• Institutional buying of Bitcoin has notably decreased, hindering short-term recovery efforts.

• Bitcoin faces a resistance level at $94,000, with a potential breakout to the $98,000 liquidity zone.

30% chance BTC hits $100,000 before New Year

Most traders on Polymarket and Kalshi predict Bitcoin will stay under $100,000 for the next 21 days.

As of Dec. 11, Kalshi is pricing around a 34% chance of BTC exceeding $100,000 before Dec. 31. Polymarket offers 29% odds of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitcoin’s peak for December stands at $94,600, reached on Tuesday, with the last BTC/USD trading above $100,000 occurring on Nov. 13.

Related: Bitcoin poised for 2026 downturn as exchange volumes decline: Analysis

Bitcoin’s short-term rebounds are limited by various factors, including increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in institutional purchases.

Data indicates that the daily rate of companies buying Bitcoin is decreasing, suggesting that institutions may be feeling fatigued.

Even with lowered demand from Bitcoin treasury, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin remain low for year-end, while expectations for regular small purchases are robust.

Additonally, Polymarket traders anticipate routine purchases from Strategy this week, with a 65% probability of acquiring over 1,000 BTC.

Last week, Strategy increased its Bitcoin treasury to 660,624 BTC after acquiring 10,624 coins for approximately $962.7 million, aiming to match last year’s purchase levels.

Bitcoin’s potential upside capped at $98,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the BTC/USD pair consolidating within an ascending triangle on lower timeframes.

The price is “currently testing this resistance once more,” stated analyst Daan Crypto Trades in a recent X post, referencing the supply zone between the yearly open at $93,300 and $94,000.

A sustained move above $94,000 could lead to a target of around $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades suggested it might only retest the prior support near ~$98K, adding:

“This is also where significant liquidity resides.”

As reported by Cointelegraph, buyers must push Bitcoin above $94,589 to facilitate a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 range.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.