Barclays anticipates a more lackluster year for cryptocurrency in 2026, with trading volumes declining and investor interest diminishing. In a comprehensive year-end report released on Friday, the bank pointed out a challenging environment for digital asset platforms such as Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear triggers for renewed engagement and a sluggish start to token adoption initiatives.
Exchanges targeting retail investors, which thrived during previous crypto bull markets, are now encountering a more restrained landscape. Barclays analysts observed a significant decrease in trading volume in spot markets — vital revenue sources for firms like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD). In the absence of a clear impetus to reignite interest, trading volumes may continue to be low.
“Spot crypto trading volumes […] seem to be heading towards a down year in FY26, and we do not see what could potentially reverse this trend,” the analysts mentioned.
Crypto markets typically react to major events: policy changes, product introductions, or political shifts. Barclays referenced previous spikes in activity, such as the March 2024 inflows for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or the pro-crypto presidential victory in November as key short-term drivers. However, without such events, the bank believes there is a lack of structural growth.
Regulation could be an area to reignite the market. Barclays highlighted the prospective CLARITY Act, which would help clarify the distinction between digital commodities and securities and determine which U.S. agency — the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — governs which assets. Although not a guaranteed catalyst for market movement, this legislation could reduce operational uncertainties for crypto companies and investors. If enacted, it may facilitate clearer product launches, particularly in tokenized assets.
Coinbase remains a central focus in Barclays’ evaluation. While the company is branching out into derivatives and tokenized equity trading, the bank foresees challenges from declining spot volumes and increasing operating costs.
“COIN has several growth initiatives as well as recent acquisitions that could begin to have a greater impact,” the report indicated. Nonetheless, analysts lowered their price target for the stock to $291, reflecting a more cautious earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to be of interest to both crypto-native and traditional finance entities. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD), and others are exploring products in this domain. However, Barclays cautions that the trend is still in its early stages and is not likely to significantly affect earnings in 2026.
Meanwhile, the political landscape in the U.S. has become increasingly favorable for digital assets following recent elections. However, Barclays believes much of this optimism is already reflected in market prices. Any legislative progress, such as the CLARITY Act, would need to navigate the Senate and withstand potential legal challenges before having any meaningful effect.
In conclusion, 2026 may represent a pivotal year for crypto. With decreasing retail engagement and no immediate supportive factors, companies are turning their attention to long-term strategies like tokenized finance and compliance improvements. Whether these investments will yield results next year or later remains uncertain.
