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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, labeled the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) initiative as “QE in disguise,” forecasting that increased liquidity will elevate Bitcoin’s value.
Summary
- According to Arthur Hayes, the Fed’s RMP program operates similarly to quantitative easing.
- He predicts Bitcoin will fluctuate between $80K and $100K before surpassing $124K.
- Hayes anticipates that renewed liquidity could push Bitcoin toward $200K by 2026.
The CIO of the Maelstrom Fund forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will range from $80,000 to $100,000 in the short term, eventually reclaiming $124,000 and possibly aiming for $200,000.
In a December 19 essay titled “Love Language,” Hayes argued that the RMP operates in the same way as quantitative easing, albeit indirectly.
He also disclosed a shift in his portfolio from Ethereum to high-quality DeFi assets that he believes will perform better as fiat liquidity improves.
RMP operates through money market fund channel
The Federal Reserve introduced RMP during the FOMC meeting on December 10. Hayes’ analysis shows that the program buys short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then reinvest the proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets.
This design effectively finances government expenditures without the political backlash of officially declaring quantitative easing.
“Although RMP purchases are lower in absolute terms compared to past QE initiatives ($40 billion monthly), the structural mechanism results in comparable monetary expansion,” stated Hayes.
This program gains potency as the government increasingly relies on T-bill financing to cover deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually.
Hayes pointed out that John Williams, President of the New York Fed, has discretionary power over the expansion of RMP under the ambiguous guidance of “ample reserves.”
This framework allows unlimited balance sheet growth with minimal oversight, which Hayes colorfully dubbed “Money Printer Go F***** Brrrrr.”
Multi-phase Bitcoin price trajectory through 2026
Hayes predicts volatile trading between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 through January 2026.
Two factors underpin this forecast: the persistent view that RMP is distinct from quantitative easing and uncertainty about whether the program will be extended beyond its scheduled conclusion in April 2026.
As market participants come to understand the true role of RMP as akin to quantitative easing, Hayes expects swift upward movement.
Bitcoin should rapidly reclaim $124,000 and approach $200,000 in the early to mid-2026 timeframe, spurred on by institutional FOMO, ETF inflows, and acknowledgment that the Fed is effectively backing government spending.
March 2026 is anticipated as the peak period for RMP’s ability to inflate asset prices. Hayes foresees Bitcoin experiencing a decline and establishing a local bottom “well above $124,000.”
This market pullback is expected to be brief and strategic, not indicative of a cycle peak. Hayes has extended his long-term Bitcoin price prediction to $500,000 by the end of 2026, based on his comments in late November.
