Analysts indicate that Bitcoin’s price will face significant challenges as long-term holders continue to take profits.
The crypto market’s inability to recover has not stemmed from manipulation, paper Bitcoin, or suppression, but rather from “good old-fashioned sellers,” noted analyst James Check on Sunday.
Check emphasized that the overwhelming sell-side pressure from current Bitcoin (BTC) holders is often underestimated, and that it has become “the source of resistance” at this time.
A chart shared by Check illustrated that the average age of spent coins has increased throughout the cycle, showing that long-term holders are the ones selling.
Another chart revealed that realized profit has surged to $1.7 billion per day, while realized losses rose to $430 million per day, marking the third highest level in this cycle.
Additionally, the “revived supply” from older coins reached its second-highest level at $2.9 billion per day.
Bitcoin OGs taking profits
Crypto investor Will Clemente stated that “the last year of relative weakness for BTC has largely been a transfer of supply from OGs to TradFi,” a trend observable in on-chain data.
“This dynamic will largely lose relevance in the coming years, as everyone focuses on BTC’s relative weakness.”
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Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz echoed similar thoughts in an interview with Raoul Pal last week.
“Many in the Bitcoin community have held on for so long and have finally decided, ‘I want to make a purchase’,” he mentioned, referring to acquaintances who bought a yacht and a stake in a sports team.
“People are trimming because they’ve had a successful run, resulting in this turnover.”
Novogratz confirmed that the only supply observed by his firm comes from “old OGs” and miners.
Weekly close holds support
Bitcoin has maintained support with a weekly closing candle at $108,700, according to TradingView.
“Sustaining this level could see the price rise to $120k+ over time. Maintaining stability here is crucial,” said analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ on Sunday.
At the time of writing, the asset had reclaimed $110,000, but it is encountering further resistance just above this threshold.
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