After reaching its peak of $124,000 in July, Bitcoin’s price has now entered a phase of struggle and consolidation. While many analysts suggest this is merely a temporary pause, expecting Bitcoin to resume its upward trend post-decline, crypto analyst EXCAVO has adopted a more pessimistic perspective. They argue that the current market trend indicates an end to the bull market and the onset of a new bear market.
Reasons Behind the Anticipated Bitcoin Price Crash
In a detailed analysis, EXCAVO explains why they believe the Bitcoin bear market may already be in play. They identify three classic signals that mark a market peak. The first is termed “Universal Optimism.”
Universal optimism refers to the prevailing sentiment that everyone appears bullish at this time, along with various seemingly positive developments. EXCAVO points out that the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency by governments and the establishment of reserve funds signifies that this universal optimism could indicate a market top.
Additional Insights
Furthermore, corporate purchases have continued, particularly for Bitcoin. Public companies like Strategy have amassed significant reserves of Bitcoin, alongside Ethereum holdings. These companies have collectively acquired tens of billions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Moreover, the current media landscape is filled with positive news about crypto. The analyst posits that with so much positivity and investors hesitant to sell while anticipating prices of $200,000, $300,000, and even $500,000, this could be an indicator that Bitcoin has hit its peak.
Exit Strategy
Aligning with the view that Bitcoin’s price has peaked and is transitioning into a bear market, the crypto analyst disclosed that they have liquidated all holdings. Their strategy is to wait until September 2026 to re-enter the market, forecasting that Bitcoin’s price will dip below $61,000 by that time.
Additional Insights
This perspective is supported by cycle theory, which suggests approximately 151 weeks of growth followed by 51 weeks of decline. According to this theory, the growth phase has concluded, and the period between September 13 and October 6 marks the onset of the reversal zone leading into the bear market.
Furthermore, the analyst rejects the notion of an altcoin season. With over 1 million cryptocurrencies in circulation, EXCAVO argues that it’s unfeasible for all coins to experience simultaneous growth like in 2017. Instead, they predict selective surges for altcoins that attract investor interest.
“I’m not a permanent bear. I anticipate Bitcoin reaching $300,000, but not in the near future,” the analyst stated. “It may take approximately 2.5 years post a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak.”
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
