Bitcoin Whales Reinforce their Support for BTC Bull Market by 2025

As 2025 concludes, Bitcoin (BTC) has settled around $90,000, while stocks and precious metals soar.

• Bitcoin experiences a slight increase following its last weekly close of the year, though liquidity indicators suggest a potential downturn.

• The cost bases of traders serve as crucial support levels as we head into 2026.

• Risk assets, excluding cryptocurrency, revel in gains despite muted expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in January.

• Bitfinex whales represent a beacon of optimism in a struggling crypto market, with long positions reaching their highest levels in almost two years.

• This year’s bull market drawdown, when compared to Bitcoin’s historical context, remains relatively minor.

Bitcoin initiates the week with a $90,000 false breakout

Bitcoin price volatility surged dramatically as the weekly close neared, witnessing a spike exceeding $90,000 shortly after.

However, similar to prior attempts, this effort failed to establish that crucial level as definitive support, as per data from TradingView.

With the significant yearly candle closing soon, traders are far from at ease regarding future developments.

Trader CrypNuevo noted that Friday’s $24 billion options expiry opened the door for heightened volatility, as is the norm.

“Record amounts of options expired on Friday, so I anticipate considerable volatility in the upcoming weeks,” he commented in a post on X.

“These options kept prices constrained; we can expect more volatility now.”

An additional chart highlighted $94,300 and $100,000 as key resistance levels to monitor moving forward.

On the downside, CrypNuevo analyzed order-book liquidity for insights, cautioning that the mid-$80,000 range might resurface.

“For liquidations, in HTF there are more to the upside at $96,000; however, in LTF, liquidations cluster around $85,000,” he commented on the liquidation hotspots across high and low timeframes.

“Thus, it’s more practical to lower prices into the low $80,000s before aiming for upside liquidity.”

Data from monitoring platform CoinGlass revealed that liquidity thickened around the spot price over the past three days in anticipation of the final trading days of the year.

Meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe targeted the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

“Nothing is confirmed yet, as it has previously surpassed this 20-Day MA during earlier corrections,” he stated on the same day.

“The key aspect is whether it can maintain above this 20-Day MA after the US Open later today and hold above it in the forthcoming days.”

Van de Poppe noted that breaking through and flipping the 20-day SMA, valued at $89,400 during writing, would signify a “shift in market outlook” for BTC.

Realized BTC price indicates potential upward movement

Looking ahead, crucial BTC price resistance levels that need to flip back to support align with the cost bases of hodlers.

Often referred to as “realized price,” these cost bases capture the aggregate buying price across various Bitcoin investors, from long-term holders to newcomers.

Recent analytics from onchain platform Glassnode indicated that the realized price of short-term holders (STHs) stands at $99,785. These entities possess a certain amount of BTC for up to six months and are often influenced by rapid price changes, making them more likely to sell quickly.

As Cointelegraph noted, the STH cost basis typically acts as support during bullish phases, and reclaiming it is vital during corrections in such an environment.

In their latest findings, Glassnode revealed that STH entities are still transferring coins onchain at a loss, even more than two months post Bitcoin’s latest all-time high.

“The realized loss volume, after excluding internal transactions and applying a 90-day SMA, currently hits $300M per day,” pseudonymous lead analyst CryptoVizArt reported on X recently.

“Even with the price stabilizing above the True Market Mean ($81K), the volume of selling at a loss, stemming from top buyers’ discontent with waiting times, has not decreased substantially.”

CryptoVizArt also pointed to another significant price level, which gauges the average cost basis of the wider active investor group. In the current drawdown, the BTC price has not managed to close below it.

Crypto remains the outlier in 2025 macro environment

The new year period tends to be quiet regarding macroeconomic data releases in the US, yet markets are already considering next year’s challenges.

The upcoming publication of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes on Tuesday should provide insights into forthcoming policy.

This is critical for traders of risk assets, given that the prevailing consensus anticipates a mixed outlook for US financial conditions ahead.

Despite declining inflation coupled with a deteriorating job market, the Fed’s next meeting in late January is not expected to yield further rate reductions, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Regardless of how stocks interpret the current climate, record highs persist for both stocks and precious metals, whereas crypto struggles to gain traction.

Price discovery for gold and silver escalated into the week’s beginning, showing significant volatility, while Bitcoin only managed a minor surge to $90,000.

“The Bitcoin-to-silver ratio has now decreased to 1,104, marking the lowest point since September 2023,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted.

“Since May, this ratio has plummeted by -67% as silver has greatly outperformed Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped to 19, its lowest since November 2023, and is down -50% since January.”

Kobeissi pondered whether crypto could “catch up” in the upcoming year.

“In contrast, these ratios were recorded at 680 and 9, respectively, during the bear market low of 2022,” it added.

Bitfinex whales bolster bullish market sentiment

In stark contrast to the broader market sentiment, large-scale traders on Bitfinex appear decidedly bullish regarding BTC’s price prospects.

Trader BitBull observed that whale long positions on BTC are currently at apex levels not seen since mid-February.

Long interest has even surpassed its previous peak from early April, a period when BTC/USD reached lows beneath $75,000 before rebounding by 50% over six weeks.

“Even though many are predicting a four-year cycle repeat, Bitfinex whales believe there remains significant potential for a substantial pump,” BitBull noted in his analysis on X.

“What if Bitcoin achieves a new all-time high in 2026?”

Galaxy Trading remarked that Bitfinex whales typically adhere to historical trends, serving as a valuable trading signal for the larger investor community.

“OG Whales are building long positions. They’re a reliable indicator for when to exit the market. When they start to drastically close their positions, it’s time to exit,” they told their followers on X last week.

Considering the overall demand from whales, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant announced the “reemergence of whale activity.”

“Unlike movements typically driven by retail, spot whale engagement generally indicates longer-term positioning, especially when it appears within low-volatility, range-bound conditions,” contributor ShayanMarkets elaborated in a Quicktake blog entry on Monday.

“This pattern suggests that downside risks may be gradually diminishing as stronger hands absorb available supply.”

Bitcoin price outlook for 2025: Not as dire as it seems?

Bitcoin has disheartened bulls in 2025, despite recently reaching new all-time highs of $126,200 just a couple of months back.

Related: Bitcoin ‘never’ hit $100K in real terms, SEC’s crypto ‘dream team’: Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 21 – 27

A near 40% drawdown has since erased positive market sentiment, with the yearly candle close looming within 48 hours.

As Cointelegraph highlighted, the short-term price trajectory holds significant importance for the overarching Bitcoin price narrative this year. A yearly close beneath $95,500 would mark the first instance of BTC/USD finishing a “red” candle in a post-halving year.

With only 4 days left to shape the yearly candle green

If it closes red, it would signify the first such occurrence in 14 years for a third consecutive bull-market year…indicating a structural change and disruption of the four-year cycle hypothesis pic.twitter.com/JjQ8QVtC6f

— Ajay Kashyap (@EverythingAjay) December 27, 2025

As market participants speculate on whether Bitcoin may no longer adhere to four-year price cycles, CryptoQuant’s research sought to contextualize recent performance.

By comparing the drawdown from October’s peaks with past cycles, data showed that bulls have, indeed, shielded themselves from the most severe impacts of bear markets.

“The current cycle is distinguished by the extent of drawdown compression observed thus far,” contributor CryptoZeno wrote in a Quicktake post over the weekend.

“In spite of a challenging interest rate landscape and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin has not faced the drastic declines experienced during previous bear phases at analogous points in time.”

CryptoZeno concedes that a more developed market may be preventing the erratic fluctuations seen during past long-term price downtrends.

“From an on-chain perspective, this correlates with a marketplace where compelled selling has been notably limited, leverage saturation has significantly decreased relative to the 2021 cycle, and long-term holder supply remains relatively stable,” he concluded.

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