Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a further correction toward the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) implements the anticipated interest-rate hike on Dec. 19, according to various macro-focused analysts.
Key takeaways:
BoJ tightening could exert pressure on Bitcoin by constricting global liquidity.
Macro and technical indicators converge on a $70,000 downside target.
BOJ hikes have historically preceded 20-30% BTC price corrections
Every BOJ rate increase since 2024 has been linked to Bitcoin price declines surpassing 20%, based on data shared by AndrewBTC.
In a post on X this past Saturday, the analyst noted BTC drops of approximately 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.
AndrewBTC cautioned that similar downside risks may resurface if the BOJ raises rates on Friday. A recent Reuters poll indicated that most economists expect another rate hike during the December policy meeting.
The analysis centers on Japan’s impact on global liquidity.
Historically, BOJ rate hikes have led to a stronger Japanese yen, making borrowing and investing in riskier assets costlier. This often compels traders to unwind “yen carry trades,” which in turn reduces liquidity across global markets.
As liquidity contracts, Bitcoin typically faces pressure, as investors reduce leverage and exposure during risk-off periods.
Analyst EX predicted BTC will “drop below $70,000” under these macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin bear flag indicates a target near $70,000
Bitcoin’s daily chart has also shown technical warning signs, with price action consolidating within a classic bear flag formation.
This pattern emerged following BTC’s sharp decline from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, succeeded by a narrow upward-sloping consolidation channel. Such formations typically indicate temporary pauses before a trend continuation.
Related: BTC OGs selling covered calls is the main factor suppressing price: Analyst
A confirmed breakdown below the flag’s lower trendline could instigate another downward movement, with the measured move targeting the $70,000–$72,500 range. Several analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have indicated similar downside targets over the past month.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
