Bitcoin (BTC) may stay below $100,000 for the rest of 2025 as the market reacted negatively to the US Fed’s rate cut decision on Wednesday.
Key takeaways:
Prediction markets indicate a 30% chance of BTC reaching $100,000 before January 1.
The slowdown in Bitcoin treasury purchases is hampering short-term recovery efforts.
Bitcoin is facing resistance at $94,000, although a breakout could lead to the $98,000 liquidity zone.
30% chance BTC reclaims $100,000 before New Year
Most traders on Polymarket and Kalshi believe Bitcoin will remain below $100,000 for the next 21 days.
As of December 11, Kalshi bettors predict a roughly 34% chance of BTC surpassing $100,000 by December 31. Polymarket gives it a 29% chance by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s highest value in December was $94,600, reached on Tuesday, with the last trading above $100,000 occurring on November 13.
Related: Bitcoin due 2026 bottom as exchange volumes decline: Analysis
Several elements are limiting Bitcoin’s short-term rebounds, including escalating macroeconomic uncertainties and a decrease in Bitcoin treasury acquisitions.
Data indicates that the daily rate of companies buying Bitcoin is falling, suggesting institutional fatigue.
Despite declining Bitcoin treasury demand, Polymarket odds for MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin remain low before year’s end, while expectations for regular small purchases are high.
Moreover, Polymarket traders anticipate routine purchases by MicroStrategy this week have a high likelihood, with a 65% chance for acquiring over 1,000 BTC.
Last week, MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin treasury to 660,624 BTC after purchasing 10,624 coins at approximately $962.7 million, aiming to match last year’s Bitcoin acquisitions.
Bitcoin’s upside could be capped at $98,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates the BTC/USD pair is consolidating within an ascending triangle on lower timeframes.
The price is “currently pushing against this resistance again,” said analyst Daan Crypto Trades in an X post on Wednesday, pointing to the supply area between the $93,300 yearly opening and $94,000.
A sustained break above $94,000 may signal a move toward a target around $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades suggests it might only rise to “retest the previous support area around ~ $98K,” adding:
“This is also where a good amount of liquidity is located.”
As Cointelegraph reported, buyers must push Bitcoin above $94,589 to enable a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 region.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
