Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 14.50% from its recent lows of $80,600, moving closer to $93,000 as traders debate whether this is a “comeback” for the bulls or the beginning of a bear market.
Key takeaways:
Analysts warn that Bitcoin’s rebound may be a bull trap, with risks dropping as low as $40,000.
Google Trends indicates a potential rise to $97,000 before further corrections occur.
Among those expressing bearish views is CryptoBirb, who remains skeptical, suggesting that current and upcoming Bitcoin price “rallies are for selling,” rather than indications of an upward movement towards widely mentioned year-end targets of $150,000 and higher.
Bear flag suggests a 16% BTC price decline next
The main arguments for a Bitcoin bull trap reference a classic technical pattern known as the “bear flag,” which typically resolves downward during bearish trends.
Mister Crypto, Celeb Franzen, and other analysts pointed out this bearish continuation pattern during Bitcoin’s recovery, with some stating that the BTC price is likely to fall to approximately $80,000.
Analyzing the bear flag further reveals a technical downside target for December around $77,100, determined by adding the previous downtrend’s height to a potential breakdown point near the $88,000 support.
This represents a decline of about 16% from current price levels.
Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 if the 2021 fractal repeats
According to analyst Leshka, Bitcoin’s current pattern closely resembles that of the 2021 cycle.
He presented a BTC fractal featuring a recurring double-top formation, a sharp downtrend leading to cycle support, followed by a deceptive rebound that formed a bull trap, ultimately preceding a significant crash.
In the 2021 comparison, that trap led to an extensive decline that halved BTC’s price. The 2025 fractal displays a nearly identical structure, with prices stabilizing within the same support region before a likely breakdown.
Related: 5 market patterns that repeat every December
Leshka cautioned that Bitcoin may revisit the $40,000 area by early 2026, a drop exceeding 50% from its current levels if the pattern holds.
Analyst Alex Wacy pointed out the same downside target, indicating that Bitcoin’s retreat from its long-term ascending trendline resistance often triggers 70% drawdowns.
Bitcoin “crowd is terrified again,” according to Google Trends
Last week, Google searches for “Bitcoin bear market” reached their highest record over five years, as noted by analyst AndrewBTC in his Monday post on X, claiming that the BTC “crowd is terrified again.”
Historically, such fears have emerged just before BTC market corrections.
For example, in May 2021, when BTC was around $60,000 prior to a correction exceeding 50%, and again in June 2022, near $26,000, as Bitcoin approached the prior cycle bottom of about $15,450.
A rise in the “Bitcoin bear market” search trend in August also followed a downturn in BTC prices.
Bitcoin might surge toward the $97,000 range next, but only to ensnare bullish traders, AndrewBTC cautioned, adding:
“Everyone will think the bull run is back, but it isn’t and bear market starts.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
