Bitcoin is becoming progressively out of reach for average investors, prompting concerns about the sustainability of the current bull market beyond its typical four-year cycle.
Crypto market intelligence firm 10x Research has indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) is getting too costly for ongoing retail purchases, a trend that could jeopardize the anticipated extension of the current bull market cycle.
Despite several calls for an extended market cycle, relying on the outcomes of the preceding four cycles is “highly questionable,” according to 10x.
“Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns,” the firm asserted in a Tuesday report, adding:
“While many perceive this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises more profound questions about the legitimacy of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”
Given that Bitcoin has only been around for 16 years, drawing “firm statistical conclusions” from such a brief period is “highly questionable,” asserted 10X Research.
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Bitcoin could reach a $125,000 cycle peak, despite stock-to-flow model suggesting $1 million BTC
In light of various forecasting models, including the commonly referenced stock-to-flow model, which has been touted for predicting a Bitcoin rise to $1 million, 10x Research’s methodology estimated a cycle peak of $125,000 by year’s end.
The research firm employed a similar approach to accurately forecast the bear market bottom that occurred in October 2022.
Related: Crypto treasuries divert $800B from altcoins, with potential long-term impacts
10x’s price target seems conservative compared to projections made by other industry experts.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, foresees a Bitcoin price of $200,000 by the end of 2025, suggesting that the substantial $19 billion liquidation event could present a buying opportunity for investors during the 2025 European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona.
In a February interview, Kendrick also speculated that Bitcoin might climb to $500,000 by the end of Trump’s second term in 2028, according to Cointelegraph.
The most successful traders in the industry, dubbed “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also increasing their Bitcoin investments.
On Tuesday, Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) ranked as the 11th most-held token among smart money traders, just behind more speculative offerings like the Pump.fun (PUMP) token and Pepe (PEPE) memecoin, according to data from Nansen.
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