The price of Bitcoin has pulled back to approximately $108,300 today after briefly reaching $114,000 on Tuesday, as traditional safe-haven assets continue to depreciate.
Spot gold dropped to as low as $4,034 per ounce, extending its significant losses from earlier this week, while silver remained nearly 8% down.
These movements come in response to remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who introduced plans for a “skinny master account” initiative that would grant eligible fintech and crypto companies limited access to the Fed’s payment system — a move perceived as integrating digital assets more closely with traditional finance.
Waller’s comments were made during the Federal Reserve’s inaugural Payments Innovation Conference in Washington. During the event, Bitcoin initially surged over 5% to $114,000 but has since settled around $108,000.
Discussions on social media indicate that investors might be shifting from precious metals to Bitcoin, echoing insights from Bitwise Asset Management’s recent Crypto Market Compass report.
According to Bitwise, even a modest 3–4% capital shift from gold into crypto could theoretically double Bitcoin’s price, considering the relative size of both markets.
Today, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick noted his expectation that Bitcoin might briefly dip below $100,000 due to trade war concerns, but he suggested that the decline could be short-lived, pointing out that recent gold weakness has historically triggered swift rebounds in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price prediction markets are flashing a signal
Bitcoin prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are evolving into real-time sentiment indicators for traders speculating on future Bitcoin prices. These platforms consolidate odds based on participant expectations for Bitcoin’s year-end value.
Earlier this month, traders anticipated a $144,000 year-end price, but that figure has since decreased to around $129,000 as volatility and apprehension have grown.
When the spot price trades significantly below forecasts, it typically indicates fear and possible undervaluation; conversely, trading at or above forecasts suggests market exuberance and potential local tops. Adjusted for prediction volatility, data reveals that significant gaps between the two often correlate with market lows.
At this moment, it’s reasonable to assert that prediction markets are signaling a contrarian “fear” indication.
While Polymarket claims a 91% accuracy rate, excluding outlier bets adjusts that figure closer to 71%. Interestingly, this ratio often moves in opposition to the Fear and Greed Index — highlighting undervaluation in times of fear and overconfidence in periods of greed.
