Key points:
If the global M2 money supply expands again as it did in 2020, Bitcoin might surge to $500,000.
The price saw a sixfold increase following the global monetary expansion during the COVID-19 crisis.
The recent jump in M2 coincides with central banks lowering interest rates amid persistent inflation.
Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially hit $500,000 if it mirrors the intensifying global M2 money supply growth.
Analysis from Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, posted on X Tuesday, highlights the most significant M2 supply increase since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bitcoin vs. M2 supply: Is 2020 repeating itself?
Bitcoin enthusiasts may anticipate significant gains if BTC’s price movements resemble those of late 2020.
The global M2, which generally precedes Bitcoin’s price rises with a slight lag, is currently increasing at a rate not observed since the aftermath of the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020.
“The money printer hasn’t operated at this level since COVID. The global M2 money supply has risen to ~$137T from $129T just 6 months ago,” Myers noted alongside data sourced from TradingView.
“Gold has responded positively. Bitcoin appears to be lagging, just like in 2020.”
The recent 6.2% increase in M2 since March still has a way to go before matching the levels seen in 2020. Myers pointed out that during that time, supply was up 21% by year-end.
“With a slight delay, Bitcoin experienced a 6x rally from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021,” he added.
“What can we expect in the next 6 months?”
While a repeat of Bitcoin’s former rise appears improbable, it could push BTC/USD past the $500,000 threshold by 2026.
Last week, the US M2 supply achieved a new all-time high, exceeding $22 trillion, based on data from Barchart.
BTC price “launch coming” as printing continues
In response, asset manager Lawrence Lepard maintained that this trend would generate a traditional ripple effect on Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio suggests a ‘cyclical bottom’ forming below $110K
12% annualized growth rate in global M2. far cry from the Fed’s 2% target and they haven’t really even turned on the printer yet. Bitcoin launch coming. Wait for it….. https://t.co/nfosCEG505
— Lawrence Lepard, “fix the money, fix the world” (@LawrenceLepard) October 21, 2025
Discussing the concept, Lepard described M2 as the “true inflation rate,” rejecting central bank targets like the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
As Cointelegraph has reported, there are doubts about whether the long-held 2% target can be restored.
Meanwhile, markets are anticipating that interest rate cuts will drive growth in 2025, including at the Fed’s upcoming October meeting.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
