Bittensor (TAO) has experienced a nearly 14% increase in price over the past 24 hours, bringing its weekly gain to approximately 40%. A clear pattern is emerging on the chart that, if validated, could propel the TAO price back towards its previous all-time high from last year.
However, a significant risk remains, which could determine whether this formation takes off or falters before lift-off.
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Whales Back the Rally as One Metric Hits Record High
On-chain data indicates that whales continue to influence the direction of the TAO price.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)—an indicator tracking money flow from large wallets—has reached 0.40, its highest point since TAO’s listing on Binance.
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Despite a brief dip on October 7, CMF has shown consistent growth since early September, indicating steady whale inflows. Even during the market crash on October 10, large holders opted to buy rather than sell.
This period marks the strongest accumulation phase since Bittensor’s launch. Whales seem undeterred by market fluctuations, suggesting that the spot market is driven by conviction rather than short-term speculation.
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Leverage Build-Up Could Break the Pole
While spot data remains solid due to significant wallet activity, derivatives present a risk that could jeopardize the rally. Perpetual futures volume surged from $813 million on October 13 to over $1.49 billion on October 14, an increase of 83% in a single day—with the majority of this volume leaning long.
On Bitget alone, long positions amount to approximately $22.33 million, while shorts tally around $9.06 million, resulting in a 100% long bias. This imbalance indicates that traders are predominantly betting on an upside.
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The concern is that if the TAO price corrects even slightly, these leveraged long positions could be liquidated (long squeeze)—triggering a rapid decline.
There’s a clear division: whales are accumulating in the spot market, but aggressive leverage could reverse that progress in a swift move.
TAO Price Pattern Faces Its Breakout Test
The 4-hour chart reveals that the Bittensor price is forming a bullish flag—a short consolidation following a strong rally. The pole represents the recent upward trend, while the flag indicates the current consolidation prior to a potential breakout. Based on the pole’s projection, the TAO price could reach $797, surpassing its previous all-time high.
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While the daily chart illustrates the broader price increase, the 4-hour chart focuses on the detailed structure of the flag—showing momentum cooling after the pole and forming a tight consolidation that may soon resolve in either direction.
The TAO price trades at around $463, encountering resistance at $469, the crucial flag breakout point. If it breaks through, the pattern suggests up to a 73% upside (as mentioned earlier), establishing targets at $519, $665, and the previous price peak of $757 and more.
If the rally falters, support is set at $423 and $381. A close below $381 would negate the bullish flag, confirming the pole’s break before a breakout.
Currently, Bittensor is at a critical juncture. Whales are purchasing actively, leveraged traders are entering, and the $469 level will determine the outcome.
