Key takeaways:
Robust ETF inflows and accumulation across all BTC investor categories indicate that the rally is just beginning.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in net inflows over a week — the second-highest ever recorded.
A rare “cylinder” chart pattern indicates that $450,000-$500,000 could be achievable this cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility on Thursday as uncertainty surrounded the market ahead of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in Kansas City.
Despite macro factors, however, onchain and technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s “supercycle” is just beginning, according to analysts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows present “durable tailwinds”
Bitcoin has shown outstanding bullish momentum after recovering from lows near $108,000, increasing more than 16% to establish a new all-time high above $126,000 on Sunday.
This recovery was driven by heightened interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $2.2 billion in net inflows last week, as per Glassnode data.
Related: Bitcoin has 100 days to achieve ‘parabolic’ growth or end its bull market: Analysis
“Bitcoin’s surge to new all-time highs around $126K has been supported by a notable increase in US spot ETF inflows,” the onchain data provider stated in its latest Week On-chain report, adding:
“This renewed participation from institutions has absorbed available spot supply and enhanced overall market liquidity.”
These inflows echo the period from Nov. 6, 2024, to Dec. 16, 2024, which attracted $5.7 billion and coincided with Bitcoin’s 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000.
Unprecedented inflows into spot ETFs indicate robust institutional demand, but seasonal factors are also contributing to the current bullish sentiment.
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest season, often aligning with renewed risk appetite and portfolio rebalancing, noted Glassnode, adding:
“Ongoing ETF inflows through October and November could provide a sustainable tailwind, boosting confidence and supporting prices into year-end.”
“More organic” Bitcoin accumulation
Further strengthening the risk-on mood are Bitcoin whales, who have been increasing their holdings even as prices rise. Glassnode indicates the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is approaching 1 (see chart below), suggesting intense accumulation by large investors.
This metric reflects the relative sizes of entities actively accumulating BTC onchain.
This trend mirrors a similar accumulation pattern seen in July, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally to its previous all-time high of $124,500, reached on Aug. 14, after being below $100,000 in June.
Furthermore, there is a resurgence in buying activity from small to mid-sized entities holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC, which have consistently accumulated over the past few weeks.
Glassnode added:
“The alignment among mid-tier holders indicates a more organic accumulation phase, providing structural depth and resilience to the ongoing rally.”
One Bitcoin price chart targets $500,000
Bitcoin price action has formed a relatively rare yet reliable pattern known as Jesse Livermore’s Accumulation Cylinder on the monthly time frame. This indicates the “unfolding” of the BTC supercycle, according to analyst Merlijn The Trader.
Jesse Livermore’s Accumulation Cylinder is a technical analysis concept in which an asset consolidates within a narrow price range, forming a “cylinder” pattern that signals accumulation by strong hands prior to a breakout.
Merlijn The Trader highlighted that the BTC/USD pair is “now entering Stage 8, the vertical mania phase,” as depicted in the chart below.
With the seventh phase of accumulation concluding, Bitcoin may now target levels 8 and 9, with price estimates of around $450,000 and $500,000, respectively.
“Bitcoin’s supercycle is unfolding,” the analyst stated.
Another analyst, Bitcoinsensus, noted that Bitcoin appears to be repeating a similar Q4 setup seen in the past two years, during which the BTC/USD pair broke out of a megaphone pattern, resulting in a significant rally.
“Are we about to witness another vertical move?”
$BTC CYCLE REPEATING? Q4 setup in progress… 🚀
📈 Q4 2023: Megaphone breakout led to massive rally
📊 Q4 2024: Falling wedge breakout = explosive movement
🔍 Now in Q4 2025: Megaphone breakout + trendline support holding
Are we about to see yet another vertical move?#Bitcoin #Crypto pic.twitter.com/ki9t9UsAM1
— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus) October 9, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, several factors indicate that Bitcoin still has upside potential, with a cup-and-handle pattern suggesting a BTC price surge to $300,000.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risks, and readers should perform their own research before making choices.
