Key takeaways:
Wall Street’s predictions for Bitcoin by year-end range from $133,000 to $200,000.
Many analysts believe ongoing Bitcoin ETF inflows and its correlation with gold could propel BTC to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over 13% in the last week, nearing its record high of $124,500.
Major Wall Street and UK financial institutions forecast Bitcoin will reach new record levels by the end of 2025.
Citigroup sees BTC reaching $133,000
Citigroup projects Bitcoin will close 2025 at approximately $133,000, indicating a moderate 8.75% increase from current levels around $122,350.
The mega bank’s primary prediction envisions stable growth fueled by consistent inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury allocations, viewed as key structural drivers behind Bitcoin’s next upward movement.
As of Saturday, the total assets managed by US-based Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $163.50 billion. Citi estimates an additional $7.5 billion in ETF inflows by year-end, supporting ongoing demand.
Conversely, Citi’s pessimistic scenario predicts Bitcoin may dip to $83,000 if recessionary pressures escalate and risk sentiment declines.
JPMorgan analysts: Bitcoin to $165,000 in 2025
JPMorgan Chase strategists, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, assert that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for volatility, as noted in their recent report.
The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, indicating that Bitcoin now absorbs about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
From this volatility ratio, Bitcoin’s market cap of $2.3 trillion would need a 42% increase for a theoretical price of around $165,000, matching estimated $6 trillion in private gold holdings across ETFs, bars, and coins.
In contrast, gold has increased approximately 48% year-to-date, on track for its strongest year since 1979.
However, the yearly relative strength index (RSI) for the XAU/USD pair is nearing 89, its most overbought level since 2012, historically preceding significant corrections of 40–60%. Thus, gold’s upward trend may wane soon.
Related: Bitcoin’s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K
BTC has demonstrated an 8-week lagging correlation with gold recently, supporting JPMorgan’s bullish outlook for a year-end Bitcoin surge if investments shift from gold.
JPMorgan’s optimistic forecast also assumes a continuous stream of spot ETF inflows as the Federal Reserve commences its rate-lowering cycle in the upcoming months.
Standard Chartered leads with a bold $200,000 call
Standard Chartered ranks as the most bullish among major banks, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December.
Similar to Citigroup and JPMorgan, analysts at Standard Chartered identify sustained ETF inflows—averaging over $500 million weekly—as crucial for Bitcoin’s total market cap nearing $4 trillion.
Increasing institutional adoption, coupled with a weakening US dollar and more favorable global liquidity conditions, could catalyze a parabolic rise resembling Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull market, according to the analysts.
Standard Chartered views the $200,000 scenario as a “structural uptrend” instead of a temporary speculative surge.
VanEck sees Bitcoin climbing to $180,000 in 2025
VanEck forecasts that Bitcoin could rise to approximately $180,000 by 2025, attributing this to post-halving cycle influences.
The firm posits that the April 2024 halving has initiated a supply squeeze, with ETF demand and digital asset treasuries serving as the structural catalyst for the upward trajectory.
Bitcoin’s performance post-halving closely resembles prior four-year cycles, as shown in the following chart.
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its cycles between 365 and 550 days following a halving. As of Saturday, 533 days have passed since the last halving, positioning it within the typical timeframe for significant rallies.
Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at Gemini, mentioned to Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s cycle may extend beyond this range, emphasizing that its four-year pattern is “more driven by human emotion than sheer mathematics” and is likely to “continue in some manner” into 2026.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading involve risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making decisions.
