Key insights:
The stablecoin SSR RSI indicates a “buy” signal, showcasing substantial buying power.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have amassed 298,000 BTC.
Historically, Bitcoin’s positive close in September precedes Q4 surges, averaging gains of 78%.
Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated throughout September but ended the month 5% higher at $114,000 on Tuesday.
Several crucial indicators suggest that the recent rebound from $108,000 may point to a “significant move” ahead, as per analysts.
Stablecoin metrics signal “buy” for Bitcoin
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which assesses the buying capacity of stablecoins in relation to Bitcoin, has decreased, with its relative strength index (RSI) falling to its lowest point in four months.
Related: Bitcoin traders’ reflections on BTC’s drop to $112.6K: Any changes?
The Bitcoin “SSR RSI is currently at 21, putting it in ‘buy’ territory,” reported onchain data provider CryptoQuant in an X thread on Tuesday.
Previous instances of the RSI at similar levels coincided with BTC prices dropping below $75,000, leading to a 67% rally towards the all-time highs of $124,500.
A declining SSR indicates increased stablecoin “buying power,” bolstered by the continually growing stablecoin supply, which points to enhanced liquidity and investor trust.
For instance, Tether USDt (USDT) market capitalization has seen steady growth, with over 10 billion USDT created in the last two months.
“This is a clear indicator of new liquidity entering the market,” noted CryptoQuant, adding:
“An increasing stablecoin supply provides a strong boost during bullish markets.”
Furthermore, Bitcoin long-term holders continue to increase their reserves, with these accumulation addresses now holding a record 298,000 BTC. This trend implies that they are hopeful about Bitcoin’s prospects for growth.
“These indicators may influence Bitcoin’s next major move,” concluded CryptoQuant.
BTC price signals potential bottom
As Cointelegraph highlighted, various onchain and technical indicators suggest that last week’s decline to $108,650 could have marked the local bottom for BTC.
Analytics platform Swissblock also mentioned that the crypto market is resetting based on its composite impulse signal, which evaluates the exponential price structure across the top 350 assets.
This metric has fallen to 20% from over 100% just weeks prior.
“At this crucial point, the Impulse Signal hits zero. That indicates the exhaustion of panic, and new buyers begin to enter,” the company explained.
Swissblock underscored that this reset has happened only three times since early 2024, each time designating a “cycle bottom” followed by a notable recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
“We are nearing that setup once more.”
Bitcoin survives “red September” for third year
Bitcoin has maintained its trend of positive average returns in September, a month typically recognized as its worst or “Rektember.”
September records the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin, which has averaged –3% over the past 13 years since 2013.
Nevertheless, Tuesday’s close above $114,000 represented a rare bullish finish to September, a situation historically associated with substantial gains in Q4 (see figure below).
Noted analyst Mikybull Crypto remarked in an X post on Wednesday.
“Whenever $BTC has closed positive in September, the following Q4 usually experiences a significant rally.”
In addition, the October-December period is the most favorable for Bitcoin price increases, averaging 78% gains.
In examining the recent Q4s, BTC surged approximately 48% in 2024 and 57% in 2023, with a remarkable increase of 480% in 2013.
If history is a reliable indicator, BTC’s price may witness its most substantial gains of the current bull cycle in the next three months.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
