Uptober is just around the corner, and optimism is soaring for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto landscape.
As we enter the tenth month of the year, the convergence of 10 key internal, macro, technical, and on-chain signals indicates that the crypto market may be set for significant gains in October.
Will October Live Up to ‘Uptober’? 10 Signals Suggest a Rally Ahead
Promising signs are starting to emerge from market indicators, with liquidity, sentiment, and seasonal trends aligning positively for the bulls.
1. Bitcoin’s Historical October Patterns
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Seasonally, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency has achieved an average return of 21.89%, closing the month positively 10 times over the last 12 years.
Notably, this time several indicators suggest that this bullish momentum could extend to the broader market.
2. SEC’s ETF Deadlines
This October, the SEC will decide on multiple altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could act as significant catalysts for market sentiment.
“Enormous next few weeks for spot crypto ETFs. SEC final deadlines approaching on numerous filings. Starts this week with deadline on Canary spot ltc ETF. Will be followed by decisions on SOL, DOGE, XRP, ADA, & HBAR ETFs (though SEC can approve any or all of these whenever),” Nate Geraci posted.
Approvals could potentially infuse fresh capital into the market, sparking possible price surges. Even with historical bearish trends for some altcoins like XRP, these catalysts may counteract previous patterns.
3. Stablecoin Supply Surges to Record Highs
Additionally, DefiLama data shows that the total stablecoin market capitalization has reached a record high of nearly $297 billion. This milestone indicates rising liquidity in the ecosystem, as stablecoins frequently serve as entry points for crypto investments. A higher supply usually signals market growth, positioning October for potential investment inflows.
4. Fading Retail Hype
Furthermore, sentiment indicators present a contrarian bullish perspective. Search interest for terms like ‘crypto,’ ‘altcoin,’ and ‘Bitcoin’ is on the decline, reflecting diminished public interest. Low social engagement at this point is viewed as bullish, suggesting the market is still in its early stages before mainstream investors return.
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“Our data shows the same repeated pattern: impulsive investors always arrive too late. They begin researching exchanges, coins, or even ‘Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?’ only after the major movements — then they lament about manipulation, losses, and claim the market has ruined them. But the reality is different,” Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said.
5. Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Macroeconomic conditions also seem favorable for the crypto market in the upcoming month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are estimating a 89.3% likelihood that the Fed will reduce rates at its October meeting after recently cutting them in September.
For crypto, the high likelihood of another Fed rate cut is a bullish macro signal. Lower interest rates diminish the appeal of traditional safe assets like bonds and enhance demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
More affordable borrowing also increases liquidity in financial markets, often resulting in greater capital flow into crypto.
6. Resumption of Global M2 Correlation
Additionally, Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, noted that Bitcoin historically tracked the global M2 money supply with a 12-week lag, but this correlation broke on July 16.
This occurred as the US Treasury withdrew liquidity by issuing $500 billion in bonds to restore its Treasury General Account. Pal indicated that this account is now sufficiently ‘topped up.’
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Hence, he expects the liquidity drain to ease, allowing Bitcoin to align with M2 once again.
7. Bitcoin’s RSI Signals
From a technical standpoint, Joe Consorti observed that Bitcoin’s 30-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing levels observed at the April 2025 bottom and September 2024’s pre-Q4 low. This oversold condition indicates building momentum.
8. Altcoin Market Bullish Structures
For altcoins, analysts see similarities between the current market structure and the patterns from 2017 and 2021, which both led to remarkable rallies.
“Altseason WILL happen in Q4. Prepare for Uptober, Moonvember, and Pumpcember,” analyst Gordon predicted.
Moreover, Merlijn The Trader pointed out that altcoins have recently formed a ‘cup and handle’ pattern, a bullish continuation setup in technical analysis. Once the handle is finalized, it frequently indicates the end of the consolidation phase and the potential for a significant upward breakout.
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“What comes after? Parabolic mania. Multi-trillion cap is the destiny,” he stated.
9. On-Chain Signals Highlight Holder Conviction
Lastly, on-chain signals bolster optimism for a Uptober rally. Analyst Darkfost disclosed that wholecoiners’ exchange inflows have reached cycle lows.
This metric tracks addresses holding at least one full Bitcoin, suggesting that holders are choosing to keep their coins.
“On Binance, after reaching a peak in November 2023 with average annual inflows of nearly 11,500 BTC, the figure has now decreased to around 7,000 BTC, indicating a new cycle low. The same trend is evident across all exchanges where average wholecoiner deposits have dropped from 45,000 BTC in May 2024 to about 30,000 BTC currently. A decline in exchange deposits suggests stronger conviction to hold, which mechanically reduces selling pressure,” Darkfost posted.
Moreover, profit-taking among long-term investors has diminished, with holders refraining from sales. On-chain data, including Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), shows subdued activity and decreasing sell pressure. This reinforces the integrity of the bull market and suggests further upside potential.
10. MVRV Ratio Drops to Neutral Zone
The final indicator, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has decreased toward 2.0.
“Historically, this zone indicates neither panic nor euphoria: investors are still holding healthy gains, yet the market has cooled from its overheated state. Every past cycle has shown that when MVRV stabilizes around this point after an initial surge, the trend often resets before entering its most robust expansion phase,” an analyst claimed.
In summary, these signals imply that holder conviction is strengthening, selling pressure is waning, and the crypto market is gearing up for further growth in October. However, factors such as regulatory challenges or macroeconomic disruptions remain critical elements to monitor.
