Key insights:
Bitcoin price trends from 2021 suggest a potential decline to $60,000 if historical patterns repeat.
Bulls maintain that $104,000 support will hold, aiming for targets of $140,000 or more.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a drop of over 12.75% from its peak above $124,500, dividing traders into two factions.
One faction views this as a typical bull market correction, while the other cautions that a new bear market may have commenced. So, which side presents a stronger case?
Bitcoin 2021 chart patterns suggest $60,000
Various analyses indicate that Bitcoin might mirror the price path that preceded the market peak in 2021.
Crypto analyst Reflection notes that, in 2021, BTC underwent a sharp surge to record highs, followed by a blow-off top, a correction into a mid-range support level, and ultimately a failed resistance retest.
This sequence precipitated a crash exceeding 50%, driving Bitcoin down from nearly $69,000 to around $32,000 in a matter of weeks.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 2025 structure resembles that same four-step sequence, with BTC lingering just below a similar distribution zone that signified the bearish reversal in 2021.
The cryptocurrency faces a potential rejection if this fractal pattern holds.
Moreover, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has fallen below a rising wedge, a bearish formation characterized by ascending highs and lows within tightening trendlines.
This breakdown increases the likelihood of a dip to the $60,000–$62,000 range, coinciding with the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; blue wave). Some analysts forecast that the BTC price may even plunge toward $50,000.
Significantly, a similar wedge breakdown in 2021 initiated a 55% correction down to the same 200-week EMA support.
Bitcoin could rebound above $124,500
However, not all market participants anticipate a broader downturn for Bitcoin.
Trader Jesse highlights a cluster created by BTC’s 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, which have historically supported during bull market pullbacks, suggesting the crypto may establish a “mid-term bottom” there.
As of Friday, this EMA price floor was approximately in the $104,000-106,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin must reach $104K to emulate previous bull market corrections: Research
Analyst Bitbull states that Bitcoin is still far from a genuine cycle peak, pointing out that the US Business Cycle, a comprehensive measure of economic momentum, hasn’t yet reached its zenith, which typically occurs before markets downturn.
With the Federal Reserve now lowering interest rates, Bitbull believes there could be another three to four months of upside for crypto before a potential “blow-off top.”
Indicators of bullish continuation strengthen the potential for Bitcoin to rise as high as $140,000, according to analyst Captain Faibik.
He contends that the current decline is a “healthy correction,” with BTC retesting its 200-day moving average near $104,000 as a possible support level.
Faibik points to the formation of a possible bull flag. In this scenario, a decisive breach above the $113,000 resistance level could validate the breakout, opening the path for a surge toward $140,000 in the coming months.
Numerous analysts have projected similar year-end targets for Bitcoin in the past, with some even suggesting macro BTC peaks in the $150,000-200,000 range.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading activities involve risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence when making decisions.
