Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a pivotal stage in its cycle, leading analysts to discuss whether the enduring bull run is approaching its peak. With volatility tightening and historical data suggesting a potential explosive breakout, market experts are closely monitoring the upcoming weeks for indicators that could reveal the current market position and its trajectory.
Endgame Approaches for Bitcoin’s Bull Run
Market analyst, ‘CRYPTOBIRD’ has cautioned that the Bitcoin bull run could conclude within the next 30 days. In a thread on X social media, he pointed out that this current cycle has now reached 1,038 days since the November 2022 low, which equates to 97.5% of a typical cycle. Historically, the last 2.5% of Bitcoin’s bull runs have resulted in the most significant price surges, often surprising both retail and institutional investors.
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Analyzing the chart from cycle bottom-to-top, BTC’s current market structure mirrors earlier cycles, where notable accelerations occurred just before cycle completion. The black line representing the trajectory from 2022-2025 illustrates Bitcoin consolidating after considerable gains, similar to the cycles of 2016 and 2020 prior to their peaks.
From a technical perspective, the expert observes that BTC is trading within a narrow 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, indicating substantial compression. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has recently dipped again and is currently hovering just above $109,600.
CRYPTOBIRD emphasizes crucial levels: the 200-week SMA at $53,111 serving as long-term macro support, the 50-week SMA near $99,000 acting as the floor for the bull market, and the SPX correlation of -0.19. The analyst explained that short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support at $111,296 still holding strong. However, the compression has set up conditions where any significant breakout could dictate the market’s direction for the rest of the year.
Additionally, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, indicating potential bearish trends. Currently, price is gravitating toward the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and if Bitcoin can maintain its position above it, bulls may remain dominant.
Halving Statistics Indicate Final BTC Decline
Expanding on his analysis, CRYPTOBIRD stressed that Bitcoin is now 523 days post-halving, placing it squarely within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days following each halving event. Every major cycle top has occurred within this range, indicating that Bitcoin is entering a statistically favorable zone for its last significant move.
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Enhancing this scenario is the current market’s volatility squeeze. The Average True Range (ATR) has fallen to 2,250, its lowest level of 2025, while 50-day volatility is at 2,800. The analyst observes that such tight volatility generally does not last and typically precedes a sharp breakout in 2 to 4 weeks.
Institutions also seem to be adjusting their positions accordingly, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators reinforce this picture, with the Fear and Greed index sitting at 44, pointing to increasing fear rather than exhilaration. Meanwhile, the RSI remains neutral at 46, indicating that while momentum has cooled, it has not collapsed.
Despite September’s historical reputation as a weak month for Bitcoin, CRYPTOBIRD highlights that it has gained 4.4% month-to-date, countering its average decline of 6.2%. This anomaly, combined with October’s typically positive performance, could lay the groundwork for a bullish Q4.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
