Key takeaways:
A positive Coinbase Premium Index indicates robust US retail demand as investors buy the dip.
Strong ETF inflows and Bitcoin treasury companies enhance BTC’s recovery prospects.
Despite persistent short-sell pressure, the likelihood of another liquidation event is diminishing.
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined from its monthly peak of approximately $118,000, dropping as much as 5.5% to an intraday low of $111,571. This marks a 10.4% decrease from the all-time high of $124,500, but various metrics suggest that the price range of $112,000 to $111,500 may act as a new bottom before BTC rebounds to new highs.
Coinbase Premium remains positive despite price drop
The recent rise of Bitcoin to a four-week high of $118,000 from a low of $107,400 between Sept. 1 and Sept. 18 can be partially linked to increased retail demand in the US, as shown by a significant rise in the Coinbase Premium Index during this time.
This index evaluates the price difference between the BTC/USD trading pair on Coinbase, the largest US exchange, and Binance’s BTC/USDT equivalent.
Related: Year’s largest long liquidation: 5 Bitcoin insights for this week
Importantly, the index remains positive, climbing to 0.075 on Sept. 22 from 0.043 on Sept. 21, even while Bitcoin dropped 4% to $112,000.
“The Coinbase premium remained positive throughout the week,” even during the recent sell-off, noted analyst BTC_Chopsticks in a post on X, adding:
“As long as the index stays positive, I am optimistic about BTC.”
A rising Coinbase premium suggests increasing interest from US retail investors.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s apparent demand, which offers a broader perspective on global BTC interest, remains elevated despite the recent price drop, with a slight uptick noted in the last 24 hours.
This indicates that new investors continue to enter the market, creating the momentum necessary for BTC price recovery.
Institutional Bitcoin demand “remains strong”
BTC’s upward potential is further supported by growing institutional interest, evidenced by substantial inflows into Bitcoin investment products.
Data from CoinShares indicates that institutional investors have increased their investment in Bitcoin products, capturing inflows of $977 million, which constitutes over 51% of the total inflows last week.
US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $876 million in net inflows last week, per SoSoValue data.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin treasury companies are aggressively accumulating, with Japan’s Metaplanet emerging as the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder after acquiring 5,419 BTC for $632.53 million, bringing its total holdings to 25,555 BTC worth nearly $3 billion.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 850 BTC for $99.7 million last week, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 639,835 BTC.
“Despite short-term weaknesses, institutional backing remains strong,” trading company QCP Capital stated in a note to investors on Tuesday, adding:
“Strategy and Metaplanet continue to increase their positions, while spot ETF inflows last week indicate persistent buying during dips.”
Traders are also positioning themselves for October, which is “historically BTC’s strongest month, with active demand for 120K–125K Calls,” they added.
BTC absorbs sell-side pressure from short traders
Despite ongoing sell-side pressure on Binance derivatives since mid-July, Bitcoin has largely maintained stability within a trading range of $110,000–$120,000. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data remains negative, indicating persistent short-selling pressure from traders.
However, the price’s resistance to falling significantly lower suggests that this selling pressure is being absorbed, signaling accumulation.
This structural resilience may be backed by liquidation data showing diminished downward pressure.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted that although significant long liquidations observed yesterday indicated that bears dominate the market, the frequency of liquidations remains low, adding:
“The risk of further bearish pressure from liquidations is medium.”
Risk of further bearish pressure from liquidations is medium.
Net Liquidations remain negative near −40M, reflecting ongoing long wipeouts and maintaining downside pressure. However, the Liquidation Intensity Z-Score (365d) is neutral/moderate, suggesting no cascade risk for… pic.twitter.com/FRu9spsyCZ
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 23, 2025
Strong US retail interest, significant institutional support, and the reduced risk of liquidation-induced declines strengthen the case for Bitcoin establishing a bottom near $112,000.
Although short-term fluctuations may continue, the underlying buying interest, likely from institutions, could render a sharp drop below this level increasingly improbable.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making any choices.
