Bitcoin (BTC) is currently undergoing a sideways consolidation phase after reaching its all-time high of approximately $124,000, with volatility keeping investors on alert. The price has been moving within a tight range, demonstrating resilience but struggling to form a distinct trend. Many traders feel this may be a period of calm before a potential breakout, as analysts describe the market conditions as pivotal.
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While short-term traders are navigating intraday fluctuations, long-term investors are concentrating on structural signals that could guide Bitcoin’s next phase. Noted analyst Maartunn recently pointed out a significant on-chain trend: dormant whale coins are increasingly shifting, and these transactions appear linked to recent price movements. Past patterns suggest such activity often precedes stronger market reactions, either boosting bullish momentum or inciting corrective phases.
This connection between dormant whale activity and price volatility is raising speculation about a potential decisive move. With Bitcoin consolidating near crucial levels, the next few days could determine whether BTC attempts another ascent toward its previous highs or corrects further.
Dormant Bitcoin Movements Align With Fed Decision
Onchain analyst Maartunn reports a significant development: 7,547 BTC that have been dormant for 3–5 years have moved onchain. This is particularly noteworthy, as coins in this age range are typically held by long-term investors. Their sudden movement has historically indicated significant market shifts. Maartunn emphasizes that investors should pay close attention to how this metric has consistently coincided with sharp price fluctuations in recent months.
In his insights, Maartunn presents data showing that each time this particular group of dormant coins becomes active, the Bitcoin market experiences notable volatility. These fluctuations can be bullish or bearish, but they are rarely disregarded. Essentially, when whales who have retained coins for years begin to move them, it signifies strategic repositioning that typically affects the broader market.
This recent movement coincides with a crucial macroeconomic event—the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is set for this week. The Fed’s decision, whether to reduce rates by 25bps or 50bps, will influence investor sentiment across all risk assets. For Bitcoin, the timing of dormant whale activity could enhance the effect of this decision, potentially setting the stage for a significant price shift in the coming days.
With BTC stabilizing around $115K, the intersection of long-term whale activities and macroeconomic uncertainty underscores the fragility of the existing market structure. Both traders and investors are preparing for what could signal the onset of Bitcoin’s next major trend, driven by on-chain indicators and global monetary policies.
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Technical Analysis: Testing Resistance Levels
The 4-hour chart illustrates Bitcoin consolidating around $115,555, with the price resting above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, currently at $114,341 and $112,378, respectively. This configuration suggests short-term bullish momentum, as BTC has successfully maintained higher lows after its September rebound.
The next significant resistance is located near $116,000, where sellers are actively defending. A breakout above this area could pave the way toward the key resistance level at $123,217, last tested in mid-August. However, repeated failures to surpass $116K could heighten the risk of short-term fatigue, especially with the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s Fed rate decision.
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On the downside, support is established around the $114,000 level, which aligns with the 50-day SMA. Losing this position could lead BTC back toward $112,000, where both the 100-day SMA and previous demand clusters intersect. As long as BTC remains above $112K, the overall structure continues to look positive.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
