Although there has been a drop in stock prices and a slowdown in Bitcoin acquisitions, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, has a 70% chance of being added to the S&P 500 index by year-end, according to insights from crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research.
Strategy is scheduled to announce its third-quarter 2025 earnings this Thursday, which are anticipated to reveal an approximate $3.8 billion gain due to fair-value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.
A successful quarter would imply a 60%–70% likelihood that the stock could be included in the S&P 500 effective December 19, according to a report from 10X Research released on Wednesday.
“Capitulation often feels like the end — until it subtly marks the beginning,” the report noted. “The earnings release on October 30 could rekindle speculation surrounding the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we assign a roughly 70% probability.”
While investor sentiment towards the stock appears “washed out,” the upcoming earnings report offers an “obvious catalyst” for Strategy, as stated by 10X.
Bitcoin Slowdown and Valuation Pressure
This forecast comes amidst growing concerns about the durability of digital asset treasuries (DATs), as numerous companies have experienced their market net asset value (mNAV) fall below significant thresholds this year.
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The mNAV ratio is a comparison of a company’s enterprise value to the worth of its cryptocurrency holdings. A ratio above 1 enables a company to raise finances through new shares for acquiring digital assets, while values below 1 create obstacles for capital and asset growth.
Several DATs have seen their mNAVs dip below this critical point, effectively hampering their capacity to secure additional funding for purchases. Affected firms include Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).
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Crypto Market Liquidity Expected to Return at This Cycle Point
Strategy has reduced its Bitcoin acquisitions in the past month, acquiring just 778 Bitcoin in October—one of its smallest monthly totals—down 78% from the 3,526 BTC acquired in September.
Despite the slowdown in Bitcoin purchases and a notable recent market correction, this may represent “exactly the moment” in the crypto market cycle when “liquidity resurfaces and significant moves begin,” as noted by 10X Research.
“With the NAV premium largely unwound, causing $18 billion in losses for investors and volatility starting to resurface, the risk-reward dynamic shifts from preparing for downside to anticipating the next phase.”
Even with a positive outlook, Strategy received a “B-” credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, categorizing it within the speculative, non-investment grade realm often linked to “junk bonds,” despite a favorable outlook for its stock price.
This is a landmark event as it’s the first time a Bitcoin-treasury-oriented company has earned an S&P Global evaluation, setting a new benchmark for traditional finance entities assessing crypto firms.
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