Key insights:
XRP remains above a crucial level in September, increasing optimism for a potential October recovery.
Success in breaking through the $2.81 resistance is vital, with technical indicators suggesting a possible 30% rally to $3.62.
XRP (XRP) opened the month around $2.77 after a 14% decline over the previous two weeks. Maintaining this level heightens hopes for a recovery in October.
XRP price must stay above $2.75
XRP is at a pivotal point near the Sept. 1 opening around $2.75, per analysts’ evaluations.
This point aligns with the lower edge of a symmetrical triangle, as depicted in the daily chart below. Sustaining above the trendline would enhance the likelihood of breaching the descending trendline at $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)). Such movement could lead to achieving the bullish target of the triangle at $3.62.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap indicates a significant demand cluster near $2.75, where approximately 1.58 billion XRP were acquired, emphasizing the importance of this level.
Nonetheless, a supply wall exists around $2.81 (marked by the 100-day SMA), which could hinder any recovery attempts in the near term.
Related: Will XRP price plummet after dipping below $3 again?
On the contrary, a drop below $2.75 could initiate another sell-off towards $2.00, which is the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle.
“$XRP is currently in a solid bullish consolidation,” stated analyst Hardy in an X post on Sunday, emphasizing that as long as the price sustains above the $2.72-$2.75 range, the “upside potential remains viable.”
Another analyst, XForceGlobal, noted that the longer XRP consolidates around $2.75, the stronger the impending breakout will be, indicating that $20-30 targets are still feasible.
As Cointelegraph covered, XRP may potentially drop to $2.50 before any price recovery, as per Fibonacci extension analysis.
October typically challenges XRP
Regrettably for the bulls, XRP usually faces hurdles in October. Since 2013, the price has closed negatively in seven of the past twelve months, with average returns falling by approximately −4.58%.
On a brighter note, November is the strongest month, making the October to December period the most favorable quarter for XRP price surges. This timeframe boasts the only three-month period with average returns of 51%, as reported by Cryptorank.
In recent years, XRP saw increases of about 240% in Q4/2024 and 20% in Q4/2023. The 2017 rally was particularly remarkable, with gains of 1,064% between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
Even during bearish cycles, such as the -39.1% of 2018 and -29.2% of 2022, losses were outliers. Nonetheless, the last quarter of the year consistently showcases significant movements.
If historical trends hold, XRP’s price trajectory could entirely reverse in Q4/2025, possibly commencing around mid-October.
XRP ETFs could ignite “Uptober”
The ETF focus in October may bolster XRP’s upward movement, with SEC deadlines approaching mid-month.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been deferred to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR launched on Sept. 18 with nearly $38 million in initial volume.
Grayscale’s decision is anticipated on Oct. 18, with crucial deadlines for other applications between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
Streamlined SEC regulations and clarity following the Ripple lawsuit have boosted approval probabilities to 100% by the close of the year, potentially unlocking $4–$8 billion in initial-year inflows, according to analysts.
However, market observers have also warned that this anticipated event might already be partly factored into the market, raising the risk of such approvals leading to a “sell the news” scenario.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should undertake their own research before proceeding.
