Main Highlights:
XRP remains above a crucial level in September, fueling optimism for a potential recovery in October.
A breakout above the $2.81 resistance is essential, with technical analysis suggesting a possible 30% increase to $3.62.
XRP (XRP) traded at the beginning of the month around $2.77 after a 14% decline in the last two weeks. Maintaining this level ignites hopes for a rebound as October approaches.
XRP price must stay above $2.75
XRP faces a significant test near the Sept. 1 opening around $2.75, as per analysts.
This level aligns with the lower edge of a symmetrical triangle, depicted in the daily chart below. Staying above the trendline would enhance the likelihood of breaching the descending trendline at $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)). This could lead to achieving the triangle’s bullish target of $3.62.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap indicates a significant demand cluster exists around $2.75, where nearly 1.58 billion XRP were purchased, underscoring the importance of this level.
Nevertheless, a supply wall at approximately $2.81 (supported by the 100-day SMA) may hinder short-term recovery efforts.
Related: Could XRP price drop after falling below $3 again?
On the other hand, a slip below $2.75 could trigger further selling toward $2.00, the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle.
“$XRP is currently in a robust bullish consolidation,” commented analyst Hardy in a post on X, stating that as long as the price holds within the $2.72-$2.75 range, the “upside potential remains intact.”
Another analyst, XForceGlobal, noted that the more XRP consolidates around $2.75, the stronger the breakout potential, with targets between $20-30 still in play.
According to Cointelegraph, XRP could potentially drop to $2.50 before a price recovery, based on Fibonacci extension analysis.
October often poses challenges for XRP
Unfortunately for bullish sentiments, XRP typically struggles in October. Since 2013, the price has closed negatively in seven of the past twelve months, with average losses around −4.58%.
However, November tends to be a positive month, making the period from October to December the strongest quarter for XRP price increases, with an average gain of 51%, according to Cryptorank data.
In recent years, XRP saw a 240% increase in Q4/2024 and a 20% rise in Q4/2023. The most significant rally occurred in 2017, with a 1,064% gain between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
Even in bearish periods, like 2018’s -39.1% and 2022’s -29.2% declines, these losses were exceptions. Nonetheless, the last quarter of the year consistently exhibits noteworthy movements.
If historical trends continue, XRP’s price actions could undergo a complete turnaround in Q4/2025, potentially beginning its recovery by mid-October.
XRP ETFs may initiate “Uptober”
October’s ETF attention could boost XRP’s rally, especially with SEC deadlines approaching mid-month.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been postponed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR launched on Sept. 18, generating nearly $38 million in first-day volume.
Grayscale’s decision is anticipated on Oct. 18, with crucial deadlines for additional applications falling between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
Streamlined SEC protocols and clarity following the Ripple lawsuit have increased approval probabilities to 100% by year-end, potentially unlocking $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows, according to analysts.
However, market participants have also warned that this likely event might already be partially factored into prices, heightening the risk of approvals resulting in a “sell the news” scenario.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research prior to making decisions.
