Key takeaways:
XRP remains above a vital level in September, igniting optimism for a potential recovery in October.
Successfully breaking the $2.81 resistance is essential, as technical indicators suggest a possible 30% surge to $3.62.
XRP (XRP) commenced the month around $2.77 after experiencing a 14% decline over the previous two weeks. Maintaining this level fuels hope for a rebound as October approaches.
XRP price must hold above $2.75
XRP is currently encountering a pivotal test near the Sept. 1 open at approximately $2.75, as indicated by analysts.
This level aligns with the lower edge of a symmetrical triangle, as depicted in the daily chart below. Sustaining above this trendline would enhance the likelihood of surpassing the descending trendline around $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)). Such a movement could lead to targeting the triangle’s bullish goal at $3.62.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap reveals a significant demand cluster located between $2.75, where nearly 1.58 billion XRP were purchased, emphasizing this level’s importance.
Nevertheless, there exists a substantial supply barrier around $2.81 (coinciding with the 100-day SMA), which may hinder short-term recovery efforts.
Related: Is XRP price going to crash after falling below $3 again?
In contrast, a decline beneath $2.75 could trigger further selling towards $2.00, the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle.
“$XRP is still in a solid bullish consolidation,” stated analyst Hardy in a post on X, noting that as long as the price remains above $2.72-$2.75, “upside potential persists.”
Another analyst, XForceGlobal, mentioned that the more XRP consolidates around $2.75, the stronger the breakout might be, asserting that $20-30 targets are still plausible.
As reported by Cointelegraph, XRP may potentially drop to $2.50 before experiencing a price rebound, based on Fibonacci extension evaluations.
October is usually a bad month for XRP
Regrettably for bulls, XRP often struggles in October. Since 2013, the price has concluded in the negative for seven of the last twelve months, with average returns declining by approximately −4.58%.
However, November stands out as the best month, making the period from October to December the most favorable quarter for XRP price surges. This is the only three-month span showcasing average gains of 51%, according to Cryptorank data.
In recent years, XRP surged roughly 240% in Q4/2024 and 20% in Q4/2023. The rally was particularly exponential in 2017, realizing gains of 1,064% from Oct. 1 to Dec. 1.
Even during bear markets, such as 2018’s -39.1% and 2022’s -29.2%, those losses remained outliers. Regardless, the final quarter of the year consistently delivers significant movements.
If historical patterns hold, XRP’s price dynamics could entirely shift in Q4/2025, with a recovery potentially commencing by mid-October.
XRP ETFs can spark “Uptober”
The ETF spotlight in October could provide momentum for XRP’s rally, with SEC deadlines approaching mid-month.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been postponed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR launched on Sept. 18 with nearly $38 million in initial-day volume.
Grayscale’s ruling is anticipated on Oct. 18, with crucial deadlines for other applications occurring between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
Streamlined SEC regulations and clarity following the Ripple lawsuit have boosted approval probabilities to 100% by Dec. 31, potentially unlocking $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows, according to analysts.
However, market participants have also warned that this likely outcome may already be partially factored in, increasing the risk of approvals devolving into a “sell the news” scenario.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
