Key points:
Ether’s recovery from significant support levels brings $4,500 back into consideration.
MVRV metrics indicate ETH is above support and eyeing a surge toward $5,000.
Ethereum’s primary token, Ether (ETH), has increased by over 15% after hitting a two-month low of $3,435 just two weeks ago. Various indicators suggest that ETH might continue its recovery towards $4,500 by the end of October.
ETH price bull flag formation underway
Ethereum’s recovery seems to be evolving within a bull flag formation, a pattern often indicative of an ongoing uptrend after a short consolidation period.
For ETH, the flag is illustrated by a descending parallel channel, which emerged following a sharp rise from its April low of around $2,500 to the August peak near $4,950, as depicted below.
The recent bounce from the channel’s lower boundary near $3,500 aligns with support from the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave), a level that has historically attracted buyers during bullish trends.
If the momentum of the recovery persists, ETH could aim for a breakout towards the channel’s upper boundary, around the $4,450–$4,500 range in October.
This interim target corresponds with analyst FOUR’s double bottom technical pattern, which projects ETH’s price to challenge the resistance at $4,750 soon.
Trader Luca also envisions ETH surging toward $4,500 (the red area in the chart below), as it has remained above its “weekly bull market support band,” indicated by the yellow area.
In addition, a breakout above this area could propel the price towards the bull flag target above $5,200, potentially setting a new record by November.
However, a drop below the support confluence, the bull flag’s lower boundary, and the 200-day EMA support (the blue wave) around $3,550 could invalidate this pattern, making ETH susceptible to deeper declines towards $3,000–$3,200.
Ethereum MVRV reinforces $4,500 target
Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands indicate that its recent decline has stabilized near the mean band around $3,900, which has historically acted as a launchpad for new rallies.
Related: BitMine accumulates $1.5B in Ether since crash despite Lee’s treasury bubble concerns
Every time ETH has rebounded from this midpoint, including in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024, it has advanced towards the +1σ (standard deviation) band, which is currently near $5,000.
This framework suggests ETH is undergoing a “healthy correction” within its ongoing bull cycle, rather than indicating exhaustion. A rise towards the $4,500–$5,000 range by late October seems statistically likely if the mean level continues as support.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
