Main Points:
Bitcoin is poised to close October in decline, ending a six-year run of positive “Uptober” months.
Traders are split, with some fearing a major correction, while others expect new highs in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to finish October in the red for the first time in seven years, leaving traders uncertain about whether BTC will maintain its downward trend as November approaches.
End of the “Uptober” Trend
After six consecutive years of gains during “Uptober,” Bitcoin is set to end that trend this year.
October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, yielding some of the best returns since 2013, with only two past declines—2014 and 2018.
This record was supported by six years of gains from 2019 to 2024.
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The situation is expected to shift in 2025 as Bitcoin trades 3.35% lower in October, with just hours remaining in the month.
“On the last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today, or we’ll have our first red October close in seven years,” analyst Jelle wrote on X.
October’s losses were exacerbated by a mid-month flash crash caused by US-China tariff tensions, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday failed to improve investor sentiment.
“October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” TraderAAG stated in a post on X, adding:
“The crypto market humbled many traders this month — momentum faded, and confidence dropped.”
Another analyst, Crypto Damus, remarked that the volatility Bitcoin faced this month was “unusual,” as October is statistically the second-best month of the year for BTC.
There is nothing “normal” about this #BTC Volatility
October is statistically the 2nd best month for #BTC
This is the worst October since the 2018 Bear Market
and only the 3rd Red October since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
— CRYPTO Damus (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025
What Lies Ahead in November?
While some traders believe that a red October sets the stage for a significant November rally, others think the Bitcoin bull cycle has been jeopardized and might be nearing its end.
The last time BTC finished October in the red was in 2018, and “November saw a harsh 36.57% decline,” noted analyst Crypto Rover in a post on X, adding:
“Should we be concerned this time?”
“What does a weak October imply for Bitcoin?” questioned analyst Timothy Peterson in his latest X update, stating that there is essentially “no correlation between October and subsequent months.”
However, Peterson noted that Bitcoin’s Q4 growth typically slows after a weak October.
“The three-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for strong Octobers, it’s 21%.”
November is historically Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging a 46% gain over the past 12 years from 2013. This makes the period from October to December the most favorable quarter for BTC price increases, with average gains hitting 78%, according to CoinGlass data.
Considering recent trends, Bitcoin surged about 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. The 2017 rally was exceptionally steep, with a staggering 480% increase between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
Even during bear markets, such as the -42% decline in 2018 and -15% in 2022, losses were outliers. Nevertheless, the last quarter of the year consistently showcases substantial movements.
If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin’s price could dramatically rebound in November, possibly reaching $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities come with risks, and readers should perform their own due diligence.
