Key takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to finish August in a downturn, marking its first down month since April, which raises concerns about a potential deeper decline as September approaches.
September is typically challenging for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has a documented pattern of declining in September.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed negatively in eight out of the last twelve Septembers since 2013, with average returns dropping around −3.80%.
Market experts refer to this as the “September Effect,” a time when traders often secure profits after summer rallies or adjust portfolios in anticipation of Q4. Since 1928, for example, the S&P 500 index has averaged returns of about -1.20% in September.
Often moving in tandem with broader risk assets, Bitcoin may fall victim to this seasonal trend.
However, since 2013, every positive September for Bitcoin has followed a tough August, suggesting that sellers are acting preemptively.
Related: Bitcoin price loses key multiyear support trendline: A classic BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer claims that a “September dump is unlikely” this year, referring to Bitcoin’s history in 2017.
The comparative chart of 2017 and 2025 shows a striking resemblance. In both periods, Bitcoin faced a sharp drop in late August, found support at a critical zone, and then rebounded.
In 2017, that retest marked the last shakeout before BTC surged to $20,000.
Today, Bitcoin is again resting near a multi-month foundation between $105,000 and $110,000, a zone that could serve as a springboard for another significant rise.
Bitcoin may retest its all-time high in 4-6 weeks
The $105,000–$110,000 range, which served as resistance earlier this year, has transitioned to support, indicating a bullish setup in technical terms.
One notable bullish indicator is the “hidden bullish divergence.” Although Bitcoin’s price has fallen, its relative strength index (RSI), a commonly used momentum indicator, hasn’t decreased as significantly.
This usually suggests that the market isn’t as weak as the price chart indicates, implying that buyers are gradually re-entering.
Analyst ZYN posits that Bitcoin may be set for a new all-time high over $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks, backed by these technical trends indicating potential growth in September.
A declining dollar could benefit Bitcoin bulls in September
Currency traders are turning negative on the dollar as a slowing US economy and anticipated Fed rate cuts affect sentiment. They predict the dollar will fall another 8% this year, a descent further exacerbated by Donald Trump’s critiques of the Fed.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to −0.25, its lowest point in two years.
This change enhances Bitcoin’s, and the overall crypto market’s, chances of rising in September if the dollar continues to decline.
“The Fed will initiate money printing in Q4 of this year,” analyst Ash Crypto mentioned last week, adding:
“Two rate cuts will lead to trillions pouring into the crypto market. We are on the verge of a parabolic phase where Altcoins could rise 10x -50x.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
