Key insights:
Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to finish August on a downturn, marking its first negative month since April, raising concerns that the downward trend may persist as September approaches.
September commonly presents challenges for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is known for its propensity to decline in September.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has recorded negative monthly closures in eight out of twelve instances, averaging a decline of approximately −3.80%.
Market experts refer to this as the “September Effect,” a time when traders typically secure profits following summer rallies or adjust their portfolios in anticipation of Q4. Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged returns of around -1.20% in September since 1928.
As Bitcoin often moves in tandem with wider risk assets, it can be susceptible to this seasonal decline.
Notably, every positive September for Bitcoin since 2013 has been preceded by a challenging August, indicating possible pre-emptive selling.
Related: Bitcoin price breaches crucial multiyear support trendline: Is it a classic BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer states that a “September sell-off is unlikely” this year, referencing Bitcoin’s 2017 performance.
The comparative chart for 2017 and 2025 displays nearly identical patterns. In both episodes, Bitcoin experienced a steep drop in late August, established support at a crucial level, and then rebounded.
In 2017, this retest signaled the last shakeout prior to BTC surging to $20,000.
Fast forward to now, and Bitcoin is once again hovering around a multi-month base between $105,000 and $110,000, a potential catalyst for another significant upward movement.
Bitcoin may retest its record high within 4-6 weeks
The $105,000–$110,000 range previously served as resistance but has now transitioned to support, illustrating a bullish technical structure.
A significant bullish indicator is the “hidden bullish divergence.” While Bitcoin’s price declined, its relative strength index (RSI), a widely-used momentum metric, shows less decline.
This indicates that the market’s strength may be stronger than what the price chart conveys, suggesting buyers might be gradually re-entering.
Analyst ZYN proposes that Bitcoin could be on the verge of reaching a new all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks due to these technical indicators supporting a potential September rally.
A weaker dollar could boost Bitcoin bulls in September
Currency traders are becoming bearish on the dollar as a slowing US economy and anticipated Fed rate cuts impact market sentiment. Analysts project the dollar could depreciate another 8% this year, further exacerbated by Donald Trump’s critiques of the Fed.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to −0.25, marking its lowest point in two years.
This change enhances the prospects for Bitcoin, as well as the wider crypto market, to rise in September if the dollar continues to weaken.
“The Fed will activate the money printers in Q4 of this year,” analyst Ash Crypto noted last week, adding:
“With two rate cuts, trillions will flow into the crypto market. We are approaching a parabolic phase where Altcoins could surge 10x -50x.”
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading activities carry risk, and readers should conduct their own research prior to making any decisions.
