Key highlights:
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to end August negatively, marking its first down month since April, raising concerns that the decline might intensify with the start of September.
September’s historical trend for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has a noted trend of decreasing in September.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed in the negative for eight of the last twelve Septembers, with average declines of about −3.80%.
Experts refer to this as the “September Effect,” a period when traders typically secure profits after summer gains or adjust portfolios ahead of Q4. For example, since 1928, the S&P 500 index has averaged returns of around -1.20% in September.
As Bitcoin often moves in tandem with broader risk assets, it can also be affected by this seasonal downturn.
However, since 2013, every positive September for Bitcoin has followed a challenging August, indicating potential seller activity in advance.
Related: Bitcoin price fails to retain critical multiyear support trendline: A classic BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer states that a “September drop is unlikely” this year, referencing Bitcoin’s activity in 2017.
The overlay chart of 2017 and 2025 shows a striking resemblance. In both instances, Bitcoin faced a drop in late August, stabilized at a crucial support area, and then rallied.
In 2017, that retest signaled the last shakeout before BTC surged to $20,000.
Looking to today, Bitcoin is yet again resting near a multi-month base between $105,000 and $110,000, a potential springboard for another significant upward movement.
Bitcoin may target its all-time high within 4-6 weeks
The $105,000–$110,000 range has transitioned from resistance earlier this year to a support level, exemplifying a promising bullish formation in technical analysis.
An important positive signal arises from the concept of “hidden bullish divergence.” Despite Bitcoin’s declining price, its relative strength index (RSI), a common momentum metric, has not decreased significantly.
This typically indicates that market conditions aren’t as precarious as the price indicates, suggesting a resurgence of buyers.
Analyst ZYN proposes that Bitcoin might reach a new all-time high above $124,500 in the coming 4–6 weeks, based on these technical formations supporting a possible September rally.
A softer dollar could benefit Bitcoin backers in September
Currency traders are becoming bearish on the dollar as a sluggish US economy and anticipated rate cuts from the Fed impact market sentiment. They expect the dollar to decrease an additional 8% this year, a slump intensified by Donald Trump’s critiques of the Fed.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) had dropped to −0.25, marking its lowest level in two years.
This shift enhances Bitcoin’s and the overarching crypto market’s prospects for advancing in September if the dollar continues to weaken.
“The Fed will initiate quantitative easing in Q4 of this year,” analyst Ash Crypto noted last week, adding:
“With two rate cuts, trillions will flow into the crypto sector. We are on the verge of entering a parabolic phase where altcoins could soar 10x -50x.”
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions bear risk, and readers should perform their own research before deciding.
