Key highlights:
Bitcoin on-chain metrics indicate no overheating, even after hitting an all-time peak of $126,000.
The Bitcoin cup-and-handle formation forecasts a target of $300,000, supported by various factors.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading 4% below its record high of $126,000, which was achieved on Monday. As BTC stabilizes around $122,000, many market analysts believe the bullish trend remains intact.
The Bitcoin market isn’t overheated just yet
Crypto analyst Mark Moss asserts that Bitcoin has not reached its peak level.
Although Bitcoin is trading near its all-time highs, its MVRV Z-Score is significantly lower than levels traditionally associated with market highs. This discrepancy indicates that the current rally may continue to gain momentum.
Related: ‘Hundreds of simulations’ forecast Bitcoin at 50% chance of reaching $140K this month
The MVRV Z-Score evaluates how much Bitcoin’s market value differs from its realized value, which reflects the capital truly invested in the network.
“Bitcoin is achieving new ATHs, yet it doesn’t show signs of nearing cycle peaks,” Mark Moss stated in a post on X on Tuesday.
He further noted that positive fundamentals, such as the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE), record spot BTC inflows, continuous purchases by Bitcoin treasury companies, and a market transition to “debasement trade” could elevate Bitcoin prices in Q4 2025.
Likewise, CoinGlass’ bull market peak indicators, a collection of 30 potential sell signals aimed at identifying long-term BTC price peaks, indicate no overheating. In fact, none of the metrics are signaling a peak.
YouTuber Jesus Martinez notably emphasized the Pi Cycle Top indicator, arguing that “Bitcoin still has significant growth potential.”
“The dollar is collapsing, the global monetary system is faltering, and given that retail interest is nowhere near the levels observed in 2021, we remain in a growth phase,” Martinez remarked, adding:
“The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is currently predicting a $200K Bitcoin.”
Cointelegraph also noted that Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV pricing bands are significantly below overheated thresholds, indicating that BTC has the potential for further growth.
Bitcoin price could surge to $300,000
The weekly candle chart indicates that the price surpassed the cup-and-handle neckline at $69,000 back in November 2024. The BTC/USD pair is currently confirming this breakout and could rise further to achieve the maximum distance between the cup’s bottom and the neckline.
This positions Bitcoin’s cup-and-handle breakout target for 2025–2026 at approximately $303,000, as stated by chartist Gert van Lagen.
Such a movement would represent a remarkable 147% increase from current levels.
“Bitcoin’s latest all-time high is merely the beginning,” asserted technical analyst Jonathan Carter, while referencing a similar setup on the two-day chart.
A successful breakout could lead the BTC/USD pair to “target $135,000, $145,000, and $160,000,” Carter noted, adding:
“The long-term bullish target for this cycle is expected to range between $200,000 and $250,000.”
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, significant profit-taking at elevated levels could see Bitcoin retreat toward $114,000 temporarily, potentially offering a buying opportunity for late entries, before the upward trend continues.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.
