This week, US Jobs data will be central to economic events affecting Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market’s sentiment.
The labor market has increasingly become a significant macro indicator for Bitcoin, potentially overshadowing inflation and other upcoming data points.
US Jobs Data That Could Move Bitcoin This Week
As the labor market serves as a key macro factor for Bitcoin, four related data points could shape market sentiment this week.
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JOLTS
The first crucial US jobs data influencing Bitcoin sentiment this week is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report provides monthly and annual estimates of job openings, hires, and separations across the nation.
This data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, September 30. The last JOLTS report noted 7.2 million job openings in July, 7.4 million in June, and 7.8 million in May.
Following this trend, economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a continued decline to 7.1 million in August.
MarketWatch economists also predict the July data on job openings, hires, and separations may come in at 7.4 million, consistent with June’s figures.
Four consecutive months of declining JOLTS could indicate a cooling labor market, reducing wage pressures and inflation.
This situation might prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider lowering interest rates further, which could enhance liquidity and, in turn, boost Bitcoin prices as it fosters risk-on sentiment.
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Conversely, if JOLTS data exceeds expectations, the perception of a trend reversal could dampen rate-cut speculation, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s rally amidst delayed easing.
ADP Employment
Another important US jobs data to monitor this week is the ADP employment report. This labor market data is more extensive and recognized as the official measure, based on payroll data from its clients.
The ADP report, set for release on Wednesday, October 1, could reveal an increase of 40,000 private sector jobs in September, down from a 54,000 increase in August, indicative of a continued decline from July’s 104,000.
Despite the anticipated drop to 40,000, this reflects ongoing slowdown in hiring.
Similar to JOLTS, this suggests a cooling labor demand. Weaker labor markets often decrease the dollar’s strength and lower yields, enhancing the appeal of liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and crypto.
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Traders frequently interpret weaker ADP figures as bullish for digital assets, expecting risk-on flows and stronger demand for alternatives to traditional markets.
However, if the slowdown raises recession concerns, short-term volatility could impact crypto before liquidity expectations bring longer-term gains.
Initial Jobless Claims
The initial jobless claims are also on the radar, presenting a weekly jobs data point every Thursday that indicates the number of US citizens filing for unemployment insurance for the first time.
In the week ending September 20, there were 218,000 initial jobless claims, with economists now predicting an increase to 228,000 last week.
A rise in jobless claims may indicate economic weakness, raising the likelihood of the Fed adopting a more accommodating monetary policy.
This shift could result in a weaker dollar, improving Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset. However, if the increase in claims is perceived as a temporary fluctuation, the impact on Bitcoin may be limited.
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Meanwhile, analysts suggest a resilient labor market combined with persistent inflation might keep interest rates elevated. However, signs of a cooling job sector could influence the Fed’s approach.
Employment Report
Finally, Friday’s US employment and unemployment reports could significantly impact the crypto market this week. Both data points serve as vital indicators of economic health.
The employment report is projected to show an addition of 45,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 last month, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3% in September, matching the August figures.
Such outcomes in employment data would indicate a slight improvement in hiring, reflecting resilience in the labor market. At the same time, steady unemployment would suggest more job seekers than available positions, hinting at underlying slack.
Markets generally view this as neutral-to-dovish; while growth is evident, rising unemployment points to softening conditions.
For Bitcoin and crypto, this could bolster rate-cut expectations (liquidity-friendly), providing a mildly bullish outlook despite the overall job gains.
