Key takeaways:
Bitcoin needs to maintain support at $114,000 to validate the recovery.
Spot volume and trading activity must increase for a sustained BTC price breakout.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 10% surge from the October 17 low of $103,500 seems to have plateaued at $115,000, largely due to waning demand and low onchain activity.
Analysts have outlined the necessary conditions for Bitcoin to boost its chances of surpassing $115,000 in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin must hold $114,000 support
The 5% increase in BTC price over the past week has allowed it to reclaim significant levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the $110,000 psychological barrier, and $114,000, where it currently has support, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Related: BTC price eyes record monthly close: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin’s bullish scenario relies on bulls defending the $114,000 support, according to Swissblock.
“This week centers on confirmation—demonstrating that Bitcoin is constructing a bottom and can maintain the $114K support,” the private wealth manager noted in a Tuesday X post.
Swissblock further elaborated that since the momentum remained negative post the October 11 flash crash, the focus now is on “momentum ignition,” stating:
“For BTC to sustain upward movement, it requires fresh buying pressure to support $114K and start building a new bullish framework from that level.”
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin bulls need to convert the weekly close at $114,500 into support through a retest to confirm the breakout.
Bitcoin has successfully Weekly Closed above both the 21-week EMA (green) and $114.5k (black)
Both $114.5k & EMA could get retested to confirm a reclaim to support$BTC could achieve this via a volatile retest of $114.5k, wicking into the EMA below#Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/T7WJgk9mIY pic.twitter.com/hw1chWDSdx
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 27, 2025
Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, stated that retaining the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $114,000 is critical moving forward.
As reported by Cointelegraph, bulls are focused on protecting the $112,300-$114,500 demand area, aiming for all-time highs over $126,000.
New demand, onchain activity will push BTC higher
Bitcoin’s ability to climb above $115,000 seems constrained due to a lack of buyers and minimal network activity.
The chart below indicates that Bitcoin’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) and perpetual CVD remain negative but have flattened in the last fortnight.
This trend suggests that “aggressive selling pressure has eased over the prior days,” according to onchain data provider Glassnode, as noted in a post on X.
Furthermore, spot trading volume has dropped by 17.5% to $12.5 billion from $15.2 billion in the last week, indicating a decrease in speculative activity.
This decline signals that Bitcoin’s recent surge to $116,000 was “not backed by widespread participation,” as Glassnode highlighted in its latest Weekly Market Impulse report, adding:
“The pullback suggests waning participation and a potential consolidation phase, with increasing prices yet to be validated by stronger inflows.”
A rise in spot volume would correspond with a broader accumulation phase, prompting a significant rally.
Additionally, onchain activity remains subdued, with a “decrease in active addresses, transfer volume, and fees, reflecting a quieter network atmosphere and a consolidating user base,” Glassnode remarked, adding:
“Until sentiment strengthens and demand broadens, Bitcoin will likely remain rangebound, with cautious optimism beginning to replace defensive positions.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, consolidation amid favorable RSI signals, along with an anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, could serve as a catalyst for the next rally in the coming days.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action involves risk, and readers should carry out their own research before making any decisions.
