Key insights:
76% of retail traders hold net long positions on Solana, indicating a historically bullish trend.
Treasury firms and institutional investors are acquiring SOL below $200.
Whale activity is increasing ahead of the spot SOL ETF decision on October 16.
According to recent data, Solana (SOL) prices under $200 could be considered undervalued, reflecting a rare positive sentiment among retail traders.
The on-chain analytics platform Hyblock reported that SOL is currently the only significant crypto asset demonstrating the highest percentage of true retail long positions (TRA). The platform noted in a post on X,
“Approximately 76% of retail accounts are holding net long positions on Solana, a level historically associated with positive future returns.”
Hyblock’s backtest indicates that whenever TRA exceeds 75%, SOL’s seven-day mean and median forward returns increase from around +2.25% to above +5%, with average drawdowns decreasing. It also highlighted that the risk–reward ratio (RR) nearly doubles during these periods, indicating stronger upward momentum and reduced downside volatility.
Similarly, crypto analyst Darkfost provided an optimistic perspective, suggesting that broader altcoin capitulation could serve as a potential accumulation phase. He noted that only 10% of Binance-listed altcoins remain above their 200-day moving average, reflecting widespread fear and lack of interest. Historically, such scenarios have led to significant market recoveries.
Darkfost mentioned, “The optimal time to invest in altcoins is often when they are least desired,” stressing that past cycles have seen similar situations lead to sharp short-term recoveries.
Currently, corporate digital asset treasuries seem to be capitalizing on SOL’s pricing below $200. Solana treasury company Solmate (Nasdaq: SLMT) acquired $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount, with ARK Invest also revealing an 11.5% ownership stake. Previously, Solmate raised $300 million to establish its digital asset treasury.
Meanwhile, the treasury firm SOL Strategies (Nasdaq: STKE) secured an additional 88,433 SOL, which includes 79,000 locked SOL from the foundation at an average purchase price of $193.93 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 523,433 SOL. These actions underscore a coordinated accumulation effort by institutional players at the current price points.
Related: Bitcoin buyers increase bids at $105K as the crypto market downturn nears its end
Will SOL maintain a position above $200?
While the long-term outlook for SOL remains positive, its recent decline and daily close below $190 marked the first bearish structural break since February 2025, signaling a potential shift in momentum on higher time frames.
Although SOL briefly regained its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), it is currently fluctuating between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. This compression often represents indecision, characterized by weakened short-term momentum while medium-term support remains intact, frequently preceding a significant directional movement.
Traders may continue placing bids below $200, yet a rapid recovery could be constrained. Nonetheless, SOL has recently revisited long-term demand zones between $190 and $170, likely absorbing earlier buy orders triggered during the October 10 flash crash.
A continuation could see SOL consolidate between $200 and $160 if bullish momentum remains subdued in the upcoming days.
Despite the short-term bearish trend, market analyst Pelin Ay stated that whale order activity for SOL is on the rise again, a trend that historically has led to rallies of 40–70%. The analyst suggested that whales are preparing for the spot SOL ETF decision on October 16, which could boost spot demand.
Considering SOL’s high staking ratio and possible inclusion in various publicly listed indexes, a positive outcome from the ETF decision could tighten supply and restore SOL’s bullish trend above $200.
Related: Ether fell by 8%, but traders predict ETH price breakout to $10K is ‘loading’
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making decisions.
