As Bitcoin (BTC) remains robust, significantly surpassing the $120,000 psychological barrier, upcoming US economic events this week may act as either potential obstacles or opportunities that will influence the short-term direction.
The previous diminishing impact of US economic data on Bitcoin and crypto has resurfaced in 2025, making these signals crucial for investors in the current week.
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US Economic Signals to Monitor This Week
This week presents numerous US economic events, but only a select few are likely to have a direct or indirect impact on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.
September FOMC Minutes
The September FOMC meeting minutes (Federal Open Market Committee) are arguably the most significant US economic data this week.
Looking back, the meeting included a new Fed governor, Stephen Miran, which preceded the Fed’s first rate cut in 9 months, decreasing the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%.
Thus, the minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC session will provide more insight into policymakers’ rationale, reinforcing Powell’s depiction of the rate cut as a risk management strategy.
Any hints of potential future rate cuts could benefit the market, likely boosting Bitcoin prices. Conversely, signals of no additional rate cuts by year-end might trigger a short-term sell-off.
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However, some macroeconomists believe this event may have a limited market impact due to the absence of economic forecasts.
“This week, fundamentally, we have the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, but these do not include economic projections, so they will not impact the markets too much. It is just the written report of what they discussed during the last meeting when we had a rate cut,” wrote xAlex.
A series of Federal Reserve (Fed) representatives are slated to deliver speeches this week, predominantly shaping the US economic landscape with implications for crypto. Nonetheless, the highlight will be Fed chair Jerome Powell’s address on Thursday, where his opening remarks might significantly affect the market.
In a speech on September 23 in Rhode Island, Powell indicated that policymakers evaluate overall financial conditions and question whether their policies effectively achieve their objectives.
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Powell’s comments are expected on Thursday, October 9, just hours after the FOMC minutes. Traders and investors will scrutinize his speech for potential insights into policymakers’ perspectives.
“Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech this week and FOMC minutes from September (when rates were cut to start easing) will be scrutinized for clues on the 2025 path: Nine officials eye two more cuts, but seven see none or hikes,” one user observed.
Dovish or hawkish statements could influence investor sentiment, potentially causing Bitcoin volatility based on his remarks.
However, it is crucial to note that the ongoing US government shutdown introduces considerable uncertainty regarding the timely release of economic data.
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Initial Jobless Claims
This week’s initial jobless claims, released every Thursday, are also vital, particularly as the labor market becomes increasingly relevant to Bitcoin’s macro outlook.
This data reflects the number of US individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
“Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy. First alert: 260k, Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average. Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks,” economist Kurt S. Altrichter stated.
Yet, the US government shutdown adds uncertainty, with several key economic events likely facing delays in their updates this week.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $123,718, with a 1.13% decline over the last 24 hours.
