Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs have broadened access, but capital flows remain cyclical.
SOL’s infrastructure is in place: CME futures launched, with options expected on Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s new standards enable quicker listings for spot-commodity ETPs beyond BTC and ETH.
For SOL to surpass ETH, it must see sustained creations, effective hedging, genuine on-chain usage, and ongoing developer activity.
Ether (ETH) currently holds an advantage in the ETF landscape: Spot Ether ETFs launched on July 23, 2024, leading to around $107 million in net inflows on their first day and paving an accessible route for investors via brokers and retirement accounts.
Conversely, Solana’s (SOL) market framework is rapidly advancing. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduced Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options anticipated by Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission implemented “generic listing standards” that simplify the process for exchanges to list spot commodity ETPs, which might broaden the scope beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Moreover, internationally, SOL is already traded within regulated investment vehicles in Europe via 21Shares and in Canada through 3iQ.
With such access established, the pivotal question is whether a US SOL ETF could generate enduring demand, enabling Solana to surpass Ether in both price and fundamentals.
Let’s first establish context.
What ETH ETFs transformed—and what remains unchanged
Spot Ether ETFs debuted in the US on July 23, 2024. On their inaugural day, they recorded close to $1 billion in trading volume and approximately $107 million in net inflows, channeling investments toward registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still lagged behind the scale of Bitcoin’s ETF launch in January.
Since then, capital flows have shown cyclical patterns. By mid-2025, ETH witnessed phases of net creations interspersed with outflows. Reports in late August and mid-September 2025 indicated a resurgence, with multi-week inflows into Ether products bolstering total crypto assets under management (AUM). In essence, while ETFs enhanced access, they did not eliminate market cycles.
At various points in 2025, Ether outperformed several prominent crypto assets, driven by consistent ETF demand and observable institutional and treasury accumulation. This trend implies that while ETFs do not fundamentally change core network factors, they can sway which asset leads during capital rotation phases.
There remains a notable design aspect: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, capping their income potential compared to direct ETH holding. The SEC is reviewing proposals to permit staking, but as of October 2025, has postponed decisions for multiple applicants. If staking is allowed—partially or fully—it could alter the balance between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know?US exchanges provide an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds, allowing traders to assess where an ETF should be priced intraday.
Solana today: Usage, growth, and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana recorded over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter as the leader among all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, data indicated that Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s—strong signals of user engagement.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transactions, a significant recovery from the lows of late 2024. The supply of USDC on Solana is around $9.35 billion, while the overall stablecoin supply on the network surged from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Nonetheless, Ethereum still accounted for the vast majority of stablecoin transactions year-to-date—about 60% as of mid-2025—indicating that while Solana is making gains, it has yet to dominate.
Key advantages include low fees and fast transaction speeds: Sub-cent transaction fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have established Solana as a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity—also becoming a hotspot for the 2025 memecoin phenomenon. This volume supports liquidity but also concentrates activity in speculative areas.
Two significant structural risks are noteworthy:
Reliability: An outage lasting five hours on Feb. 6, 2024, necessitated a coordinated restart and a client patch (v1.17.20).
Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have identified Solana as an unregistered security—a classification disputed by the Solana Foundation. Outcomes in this domain are highly dependent on policy.
Did you know?CME plans daily, monthly, and quarterly expiries for SOL options, enhancing hedging opportunities for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would likely change
Access and flows: Approval would grant SOL access to mainstream brokerage and retirement platforms utilized by registered investment advisers (RIAs), reducing operational barriers and broadening the investor base beyond crypto-centric avenues.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives provide authorized participants (APs) and market makers with mechanisms to hedge creations and redemptions, along with executing basis or relative-value trades. These functions help maintain ETF prices close to their NAV and bolsters day-one liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” expand opportunities beyond BTC and ETH for sponsors who meet the criteria.
Ex-US demand signals: Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) illustrate that regulated investment vehicles for Solana can garner investor interest.
Did you know?In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, leading issuers to employ ETPs instead. This is why “ETP” appears on SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL actually outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong early net creations could potentially surpass Ether in total return.
Two primary drivers include:
Broader access: RIAs and brokerages can gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.
Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and increased capacity as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Even with a strong launch of a SOL ETF, flows may revert to correlating with overall risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional advantage due to its established history, deeper allocator familiarity, and a well-developed ecosystem. Weekly fund flow variations in crypto suggest that relative performance may be inconsistent rather than decisively favoring SOL.
The bear case
If timelines are delayed or eligibility questions arise under the SEC framework, expectations could be dampened. Alternatively, liquidity might decline, leading APs to manage smaller portfolios despite the availability of derivatives, which could cause Solana to lag behind Ether — a cryptocurrency already benefiting from a more mature distribution.
Moreover, it is noteworthy that some regulators have raised concerns regarding diminished case-by-case scrutiny under the generic listing standards, introducing policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to monitor
Should a US spot SOL ETF gain approval, the subsequent narrative may be pivotal.
Key indicators to observe are clear: Are creations and redemptions indicative of ongoing demand? Does CME’s open interest and options activity amplify liquidity? Do on-chain metrics like active users, fee revenue, stablecoin transactions, and developer growth sustain beyond speculative spikes? If these metrics align positively, the likelihood of SOL outperforming ETH increases significantly.
A Solana ETF would alleviate a major access barrier and benefit from stronger market infrastructure compared to past cycles. However, Ether has already demonstrated its ability to attract billions through ETFs while anchoring institutional discussions.
ETH remains the benchmark, and its capital flows—although cyclical—exhibit resilience. Whether Solana can indeed outperform will hinge less on speculation and more on whether ETF inflows can lead to sustained on-chain adoption.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
