Key insights:
Bitcoin fell below $111,500, testing a significant daily demand area.
Spot demand remains robust, sustaining a market structure favorable for bulls.
Price levels around $113,000, $107,200, and $100,000 may attract investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $111,500 during Monday’s Asian trading session, clearing internal liquidity between $115,000 and $114,000 while testing a daily demand zone from $110,700 to $113,200. This dip risks losing support from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) if the daily candle closes below $113,200.
Cointelegraph had highlighted the likelihood of this retest last week, forecasting a dip below $113,000 before a potential rebound. A temporary bullish response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on Wednesday pushed BTC to $117,500, but the rally failed to break the structure bullishly, resulting in the current correction.
Despite the recent downturn, the overall market structure remains positive. Data from CryptoQuant suggests that investors are buying into the dip vigorously, as indicated by a strong Coinbase Premium Index. This suggests that U.S. spot demand is providing support against deeper downward pressure.
On-chain analysis supports this perspective. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that spot demand has been steady over the past month, with notable demand totaling 95,800 BTC. Ongoing accumulation keeps price action near the upper band of the recent range, even as futures markets demonstrate short-term weakness.
Moreover, nearly $280 million in BTC futures positions were liquidated during the correction, eliminating leverage that had accumulated during BTC’s rise from $107,000 to $117,500 in September. With excessive leverage flushed out, the market could be poised for a healthier continuation if spot demand holds.
Related: Bitcoin shows signs of ‘cycle exhaustion’ as BTC price tumbles to $112K
Key Bitcoin price levels to monitor
As Bitcoin trades just below $113,000, three pivotal price levels emerge from a trend standpoint.
The first is the demand zone between $110,700 and $113,200. A rapid rebound from this level would confirm that the recent dip was merely a flush of leverage, clearing out speculative positions.
Crypto analyst Dom mentioned that futures markets experienced one of the largest long liquidations in recent months, with nearly 80% concentrated on Bybit. Such occurrences typically reset market conditions, allowing for a cleaner upward movement. A quick recovery from this zone could drive BTC back above $117,000 in the near term.
If recovery is gradual, Bitcoin may drift towards external liquidity or support around $107,200. BTC has frequently shifted between higher time frame range highs and lows prior to resuming broader trends in 2025. Over $3 billion in long positions remain vulnerable at this level, increasing the likelihood of a liquidity grab before a bullish reversal.
Historically, September has shown a bearish tendency, making this scenario reasonable as a short-term shakeout before stronger upside momentum leading into Q4.
The third and most bearish scenario would involve a sustained breakdown below $107,200, potentially extending toward $100,000. This would indicate a structural shift toward bearish market conditions, with consolidation at lower levels suggesting an exhaustion of the current cycle.
Supporting this risk, Glassnode pointed out that the short-term holder cost basis is around $111,400. Sustained trading below this “battle line” between bulls and bears could solidify a transition to a mid- to long-term bearish structure.
Related: Biggest long liquidation of the year: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
