Main Points:
Bitcoin dip buyers have returned, yet sellers still dominate in both futures and spot markets.
With the Labor Day holiday halting trading and the potential for OG Bitcoin whales to sell, BTC prices could drop to $105,000 or lower.
Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating turbulent waters as it struggles to maintain levels above $108,000, showing no immediate signs of recovery. Caution is prevalent among traders while Wall Street is closed for Labor Day, compounded by the looming threat of a whale possibly offloading another billion-dollar chunk of BTC onto the market.
Transfers and sales from long-quiet whale-sized Bitcoin wallets, conversion to Ether (ETH), decreasing inflows to spot BTC ETFs, and weekend declines in the DOW, S&P500, and Nasdaq all contribute to dampened investor sentiment. The market is also reacting to US President Trump’s fluctuating comments regarding tariffs and his attempts to influence the Federal Reserve board.
Despite some long-term optimism regarding the Fed potentially lowering interest rates in late September or October, these prospects haven’t improved short-term investor sentiment.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s intraday price movements are chiefly influenced by activities in the perpetual futures market, where data indicates that selling from Binance’s cohort of 10,000 to 10 million customers significantly outweighs buying in both spot and futures markets at Binance and Coinbase.
While ongoing selling pressure in futures is hindering Bitcoin price advances, data reveals a consistent accumulation of short positions each time support levels fail to hold. However, retail-size cohort buyers (100 to 10K) are capitalizing on each new low.
Related: Is a Bitcoin price decline expected in September?
The chart below illustrates that as price slipped into the $112,000 to $111,000 range from August 19 to August 22, and again as BTC fell to $107,200 from Friday to Sunday, buyers engaged. It’s notable that prior to August 19, the order book did not indicate more bids than sell orders since June 22, when BTC dipped below $98,000.
Bitcoin’s 30-day liquidation heatmap reflects ongoing absorption of downside liquidity, with the most substantial cluster around $104,000.
On a shorter timeline, the BTC/USDT 1-hour chart at TRDR.io shows bids appearing at $105,000, $102,600, and $100,000. Setting the order book to a 10% depth, bids are also visible in the $99,000 to $92,000 range.
While buyers are eager to purchase dips to new lows, the combination of orderbook liquidity and Bitcoin price weakness favors continued downside, with sellers still overpowering dip buyers. With Wall Street (and the spot BTC ETFs) closed on Monday, the adverse effects of OG whale selling in the open market are likely to keep exerting downward pressure on prices in the near term.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers are urged to conduct their own research before making decisions.
