Following a year of unforeseen challenges in the crypto market, 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year, spurred by clearer regulations, increasing stablecoin adoption, and an improving macroeconomic landscape, according to a recent report from Coinbase Institutional.
In its 70-page analysis, Coinbase Institutional noted that digital assets have transitioned “from a niche market to a forthcoming pillar of global market infrastructure,” even with significant price volatility and inconsistent liquidity characterizing much of 2025.
Looking forward, the institutional division of Coinbase expects that more defined global regulatory frameworks will offer stronger policy foundations, promoting innovation and long-term market development.
Rather than witnessing yet another retail-oriented boom-and-bust cycle, 2026 is presented as a year of institutional integration and regulatory advancement, with clearer guidelines allowing for increased participation from traditional financial institutions.
In the U.S., Coinbase Institutional highlighted key policy developments, including advancements in stablecoin legislation like the GENIUS Act and progress toward a more comprehensive crypto market structure bill, as crucial elements shaping the next stage of adoption.
These initiatives are expected to impact a wide range of areas, from risk management and compliance standards to institutional portfolio strategies.
Stablecoins remain one of the most established applications of crypto, with Coinbase Institutional anticipating significant growth in the upcoming years. Its projections indicate that the stablecoin market could rise to approximately $1.2 trillion by 2028, fueled by increased use in payments, settlements, payroll, and cross-border remittances.
Nevertheless, the outlook remains cautious. Coinbase Institutional described its macroeconomic expectations as “cautiously optimistic,” pointing out that while economic growth may remain unpredictable, the U.S. economy has demonstrated more resilience than recent data suggests.
Persistent inflation risks and the timing of potential interest rate adjustments are crucial factors that could affect crypto market recovery leading up to 2026.
Related: U.S. banks may soon issue stablecoins under FDIC plan to implement GENIUS Act
Bitcoin’s volatility profile is changing
One of Coinbase Institutional’s key insights is that Bitcoin’s volatility profile has gradually shifted. Instead of being an extreme outlier among major asset classes, Bitcoin’s volatility now aligns more closely with that of high-growth tech stocks, according to the report.
Coinbase noted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) 90-day historical volatility declined to roughly 35% to 40% by the end of 2025, down from levels exceeding 60% in mid-2024. This moderation occurred despite the market adapting to significant structural changes, such as the approval and introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
However, 2025 was still a tumultuous and emotionally charged year for Bitcoin holders. The asset experienced sharp price fluctuations, reaching new cycle highs before undergoing a significant correction later in the year due to heightened leverage and forced liquidations across crypto markets.
While such movements have reignited discussions around Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset, Coinbase Institutional stated that 2025 ultimately represented a landmark year. The report described Bitcoin as having been “firmly established as a critical component of the global financial dialogue,” despite continuing to face the challenges of a maturing asset class.
Related: Why the ‘great China Bitcoin mining crackdown’ fell short of early claims
