Key takeaways:
XRP has established support at $2.80, with a potential descending triangle breakout indicating a 23% rally to $3.66.
Approval of spot XRP ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission could contribute to favorable momentum in October.
XRP’s (XRP) price increased by 5% in the last 24 hours, climbing 11% from its local low of $2.69 to trade just under $3 on Thursday. This movement sets XRP up for additional gains in October, supported by various on-chain, technical, and fundamental factors.
Onchain data supports XRP breakout scenario
XRP’s record quarterly close on Tuesday coincided with the price surpassing a crucial support zone between $2.75-$2.80, as indicated by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
The cost basis distribution heatmap reveals significant activity in this range, where nearly 4.3 billion XRP were acquired, highlighting the importance of this level.
Maintaining support in this area is essential for a sustained recovery towards $3 and beyond.
“$XRP is presently trading within a descending triangle pattern as buyers continue to uphold the $2.80 support zone,” noted analysts from Alpha Crypto Signal, adding:
“This compression is setting up for a decisive move.”
The next notable resistance is anticipated at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, around $3, along the triangle’s descending trendline.
A breakout above this trendline with substantial volume could initiate a bullish leg for XRP towards $3.40–$3.66.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, a significant breakout from a symmetrical triangle could catalyze a rally toward $4.20 in October, driven by whale buying.
SEC’s ETF approval to boost XRP price
October’s ETF spotlight may provide additional support to XRP, with deadlines from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaching mid-month.
The agency is expected to decide on six spot XRP ETF applications, including Grayscale’s, with a deadline of October 18. Other application deadlines are from October 19 to October 25.
⚡️ INSIGHT: SEC deadlines for multiple $XRP ETF applications approaching in October. pic.twitter.com/oMCsGEM5dX
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 29, 2025
These decisions follow the SEC’s approval of streamlined listing standards for spot crypto ETFs, indicating a regulatory openness following the resolution of Ripple’s lawsuit.
Related: Why XRP matters: 5 key factors driving its value beyond price
Approvals could unlock billions in institutional funds, as demonstrated by REX/Osprey’s XRPR, which debuted on September 18 with nearly $38 million in first-day volume.
Even partial approvals would enhance sentiment, liquidity, and adoption, catalyzing a self-reinforcing rally in October’s high-stakes window.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.