Reasons for Rigs Going Dark
Miners are navigating one of the most challenging margin situations the industry has encountered in recent years.
As per a recent analysis, the hash revenue for major public miners has decreased from approximately $55 per petahash (PH) per day in Q3 to about $35 per PH/day currently. Their median all-in cost is nearing $44 per PH/day, indicating that a substantial portion of the sector is now operating at a loss.
Meanwhile, the network hashrate is around 1.0-1.1 zettahash (ZH) per second, suggesting near-record competition for each block.
The crux of the matter is return on investment (ROI): Even the latest machines are showing payback periods exceeding 1,000 days, while the next halving is approximately 850 days away. Without any improvements in market conditions, many miners acquiring hardware now may find it hard to recover costs before the next halving.
This guide examines miner economics in 2025, how to assess if your machines are losing money, and what realistic options exist if they are.
Understanding Miner Economics in 2025
After the halving, every miner is competing for a smaller revenue pool.
The block subsidy fell from 6.25 Bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC in the 2024 halving, halving the primary source of miner income overnight.
With about 144 blocks produced daily, that’s roughly 450 BTC in new supply each day, plus transaction fees.
During this time, the network’s hashrate has surged into the zettahash range at about 1.0+ ZH/s according to recent seven-day averages.
Consequently, the hash price has reached an all-time low, representing the USD revenue per PH/day of hashing power. Some crypto publications are reporting recent values around $35-$38 per PH/day or about $0.03-$0.04 per terahash (TH) per day.
In this context, miners must balance:
Capital expenditure (capex): The cost of ASIC machines, transformers, racks, networking equipment, and land.
Operating expenditure (opex): The price of power per kWh, hosting margins, cooling, maintenance, debt obligations, and personnel.
To survive, you must clear two key challenges:
Cash flow test: Is daily revenue surpassing daily operating costs at current hash prices and power rates?
Payback test: Can the rig realistically recover its purchase price before the next halving or hardware obsolescence?
These two metrics are critical benchmarks for most setups.
Did you know? In mining, a kilowatt-hour (kWh) is the unit billed for electricity. A miner using four kW consumes four kWh each hour, making kWh the measure that ultimately influences your actual daily and monthly operational expenses.
Challenges Even New-Gen Rigs Face to Break Even
If you operate modern hardware, this is where the situation becomes challenging.
The current elite tier, including devices like Bitmain’s Antminer S21 and the Whatsminer M60 series, offers efficiency between 17-22 joules per terahash (J/TH). This marks a significant advancement from older models and is widely accepted as the minimum standard for serious operations.
In theory, that efficiency should lead to decent profit margins. However:
With a hash price of $35-$38 per PH/day, even the most efficient rigs barely cover the electricity costs for miners facing mid-range industrial tariffs.
Analysts estimate a break-even threshold of about $40 per PH/day for numerous operations. Below this point, additional hours of operation erode reserves.
TheMinerMag and similar sources now report ASIC payback durations extending beyond 1,000 days at present hardware prices and revenue, which exceeds the time remaining until the next halving.
Some profitability guides suggest that at these power costs, purchasing spot BTC might be more straightforward than mining, though this depends on individual circumstances.
That is why rigs are being shut down. In many setups, each additional block of operational time amplifies losses.
Did you know? A miner’s joules per terahash (J/TH) rating indicates how much energy is required to produce hash work. A lower J/TH denotes the machine performing the same terahash using less electricity, making it the most reliable indicator of ASIC efficiency.
How to Assess if Your Machines are Underwater
This framework can be executed in just 15 minutes.
Gather Your Data:
Model and hashrate of the ASIC
Efficiency (J/TH) from the manufacturer’s specifications
All-in power cost per kWh (energy, demand fees, and hosting markups)
Pool and any site-specific fees.
Estimate Daily Revenue:
Multiply your total hashrate in PH or TH by a current hash price, such as $35-$38 per PH/day.
For TH units, remember that $35 per PH/day equals $0.035 per TH/day.
Calculate Daily Power Expenses:
Transform efficiency to power consumption: (J/TH x hashrate in TH) ÷ 1,000 = kW
Multiply kW x 24 x kWh price
Add a 5%-10% margin for cooling, networking, and transformer losses.
Perform the Cash Flow Check:
If revenue is less than power costs, you are losing money every day you continue running.
Stress test your setup by checking if numbers remain valid if the hash price drops 10% and difficulty increases by 10%.
If that situation renders you negative, you are depending on a short-term BTC surge.
Conduct the Payback Test:
Divide your ASIC purchase price by net daily profit, calculated as revenue minus operating costs.
If payback time exceeds the period until the next halving (approximately 2.3 years from now), view any new hardware acquisition as a speculative investment rather than a practical business decision.
If both tests indicate a failure, the setup often resembles a costly form of dollar cost averaging instead of a sustainable mining endeavor.
Your Options When Mining is No Longer Profitable
If the numbers appear unfavorable, a few strategies are still available to you.
Throttle or Selectively Curtail
Underclock machines, disable the least efficient ones, or operate solely during off-peak tariff hours. In some regions, grid operators may even compensate large sites for reducing output during high-demand periods.
Pursue Cheaper Power
For hosted miners, this could involve renegotiating contracts or relocating to facilities with lower overall power costs. In industrial contexts, there’s a growing trend towards utilizing behind-the-meter renewable energy, flared gas, and other stranded energy sources that can beat grid prices.
Repurpose the Facility
Some operators are looking into AI and general high-performance computing workloads, renting spare capacity to clients needing inference or rendering services. This isn’t a direct substitute, as cooling and networking requirements shift, but it can convert an underutilized substation into a revenue-generating data center.
Consolidate or Exit
For certain operators, selling rigs or consolidating can prove more pragmatic than pushing through another challenging epoch.
Implications of Shutdowns for Future Miners and Bitcoin
Miner hardships do not inherently pose a risk to the protocol.
Historically, a sufficient number of operators shutting down leads to a downward adjustment in difficulty, benefiting the remaining miners. However, this cycle is more complex due to large public miners with favorable power contracts and hedging strategies that can withstand difficult periods longer, thereby delaying the necessary adjustments.
For anyone contemplating mining in 2025, the requirements are now evident:
Access to truly low-cost power, ideally around $0.06 per kWh or less
Current-generation efficiency, as hardware under 20-J/TH is no longer viable
Discipline in regularly checking break-even points and readiness to shut down when the metrics no longer add up.
For Bitcoin itself, recurring waves of miner shutdowns have so far seemed to serve as a reset, allowing capital and energy to transition from inefficient operators to more efficient ones.
The hard truth for smaller players is straightforward: For many smaller operators, the economics often favor purchasing BTC over mining, though this can vary based on power costs and hardware efficiency.
