Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, predicts that the number of crypto users could reach 4 billion by 2030.
In a recent X post, Pal shared insights comparing the growth of crypto users to that of internet users after each innovation saw an increase of 5 million users.
He analyzed the trend by examining the count of crypto wallets versus the total number of IP addresses.
Pal notes that the crypto user base has seen a growth of 137% annually over the past nine years, reaching 659 million users by the end of 2024. In contrast, internet users numbered 187 million by the end of 2000, with a growth rate of 76%.
He forecasts a more conservative annual growth rate of 43% for the coming year, envisioning 1 billion crypto users by 2030, equivalent to one-eighth of the global population.
$100 trillion market capitalization
Pal’s optimistic view also forecasts that the market cap of crypto could surpass $100 trillion within the next decade, potentially as early as 2032.
He suggests that debasement and adoption will serve as major drivers for this expansion.
“Debasement accounts for 90% of price movements (and adoption accounts for 100% of outperformance against debasement),” Pal remarked.
Related: Exponential currency debasement: ‘You don’t own enough crypto, NFTs’
Community skepticism on Pal’s predictions
Comments on Pal’s X post indicate a belief that his figures may be overly optimistic.
One user questioned the reliability of wallets as an indicator of growth, while another suggested that a founder could create “10,000 wallets and distribute coins to inflate perceived community size.”
Another user noted that they create a new wallet every six months and have continued to do so for four years.
In response, Pal argued that the same applies to IP addresses.
According to Triple-A, a B2B digital currency platform, over 560 million crypto users were reported by the end of 2024.
Additionally, an October 2024 report by Andreessen Horowitz indicates that there are approximately 30 million to 60 million active crypto users each month.
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