Experts in cryptocurrency are pondering the likelihood of a rally this October, just 10 days away, following a downturn in the markets on Monday.
Historically, October has proven to be one of the most consistently favorable months for Bitcoin (BTC), experiencing gains 10 out of 12 times since 2013, as reported by CoinGlass, earning the title “Uptober.”
The cryptocurrency last saw a loss in October in 2018, when it fell 3.8%. In the bullish years of 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin surged by 48% and 40% respectively in October.
If a similar uptick occurs this bull market year, it could potentially elevate Bitcoin to around $165,000 next month from current values.
Indicators Favoring “Uptober”
On Monday, Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chassé mentioned an increased probability of another Federal Reserve rate reduction next month, currently sitting at 92%, according to CME futures forecasts. Chassé noted that the “easing cycle is basically priced in,” indicating that liquidity, the vital element for Bitcoin and crypto, is on the rise.
Analyst “Sykodelic” anticipated on Monday that the markets would drop lower before making a comeback in October.
“As I’ve indicated for a while, $112,500 is the target, and once we reach it, we’ll see the usual voices predicting rate cuts becoming bearish and fearing a market peak,” they remarked, adding:
“Once that’s behind us, it’s onward to new records and the commencement of an explosive final phase that will send the market into euphoria.”
Related: Bitcoin poised to outshine ‘red September’ dip for the third consecutive year
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes asserted that crypto will enter an “up only mode” once the US Treasury achieves its target of refilling the Treasury General Account, which spiked beyond $850 billion earlier this month. “With this liquidity extraction complete, an upward trend can resume,” he stated on X on Saturday.
Some Predict a More Subdued Crypto Rally
Yet, certain analysts advise caution against excessive optimism.
“We foresee any BTC rallies being relatively subdued due to extremely low implied volatility and upward skews, decreasing DAT inflow momentum, and the presence of profit-takers still ready to sell to cap any gains,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, adding:
“Long-term investors will need to be more patient before expecting new all-time highs to be reached.”
Additionally, Jeff Mei, the chief operating officer at the BTSE exchange, expressed, “We believe the Uptober trend is less likely this year given macroeconomic uncertainties and that September hasn’t experienced market declines.”
“However, if the Fed signals more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, this could change.”
Crypto Markets Declined on Monday
The crypto markets began to decline on Monday morning, with total capitalization falling by $80 billion over just a few hours, as Bitcoin dropped to a twelve-day low of $114,270.
Ether (ETH) also faced challenges, falling over 4% to dip below $4,300, marking its lowest point in two weeks.
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