Metaplanet’s valuation metric, mNAV, experienced a brief decline below 1.0, indicating a market discount in relation to its Bitcoin assets.
The mNAV is calculated as (market capitalization + total liabilities) divided by the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. A value below 1.0 implies that the equity market is valuing the company at a discount relative to its underlying Bitcoin assets.
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mNAV Dip Reflects Valuation Discount Against Bitcoin
Metaplanet (TSE Standard: 3350), which bases its corporate strategy on Bitcoin holdings, recorded a drop in its market‑adjusted net asset value (mNAV) to 0.99 on Tuesday—marking the first occasion it has dipped below the baseline of 1.0. During this decline, shares plummeted 12.36%, finishing at JPY 482, a drop of JPY 68 amid wider market concerns such as escalating US–China tensions.
Although mNAV saw a modest rebound to 1.01, the temporary dip caught the attention of investors. Over the last month, the stock has fallen approximately 20.3%, yet remains up 28.7% year‑to‑date. The company claims to hold 30,823 BTC, based on its analytics disclosure.
Market observers view the mNAV drop as more than just a statistical anomaly. The metric is commonly utilized to evaluate the capital flexibility of crypto‑treasury firms. A fall below 1.0 can raise alarms regarding prospective financing or market sentiment.
Market Reaction, mNAV Debate, and Earnings Outlook
Market analysts continue to discuss the potential ramifications of the mNAV decline. Mark Chadwick of Smartkarma informed Bloomberg that the drop might be indicative of a “bubble‑bursting” phenomenon for digital‑asset treasury stocks.
Conversely, others point out that similar firms have traded beneath mNAV = 1.0 without encountering structural distress. Some optimistic investors see the dip as a buying opportunity, believing the market undervalues Metaplanet’s hybrid exposure to Bitcoin and its operational growth.
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The validity of mNAV itself has come under scrutiny. Greg Cipolaro of NYDIG contended that mNAV may mislead investors. It overlooks operational cash flows, debt obligations, and nuances in the balance sheet. He proposed a reevaluation of its prevalent use in valuing crypto‑treasury companies.
Notwithstanding these uncertainties, Metaplanet has enhanced its full‑year FY2025 operating profit forecast by 88%, increasing it from $16.5 million (¥2.5 billion) to $30.9 million (¥4.7 billion). The company attributes this to better treasury operations and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Capital Restructuring: Stock Options Exercised, Bond Redemption
Metaplanet released a press release outlining its 20th stock option exercise and a partial redemption of its 19th series corporate bonds.
According to the release, 13,000 rights were exercised (from a total of 1,850,000 issued), leading to the issuance of 1,300,000 new shares at an exercise price of ¥637 each earlier this month. This increased the company’s total number of issued shares to 1,142,274,340 by October 10, 2025. Metaplanet also disclosed that it partially repaid $4.9 million (¥750 million) of its $197 million (¥30 billion) 19th ordinary bonds.
These corporate maneuvers illustrate Metaplanet’s adjustments to its capital structure in response to financing demands and market conditions. The new share issuance somewhat dilutes existing shareholders but also injects liquidity, while the bond redemptions alleviate debt obligations.
