Key points:
Bitcoin is nearing the end of its “golden week” gains that have been consistent since 2015.
BTC price action must surpass $116,000 by the daily close on Wednesday, according to research findings.
Crypto markets may see a last-minute boost from potential US interest-rate cuts.
Bitcoin (BTC) is racing against time to preserve its traditional October “golden week” as it struggles to hold above $113,000.
According to data from network economist Timothy Peterson, posted on X, BTC/USD needs to increase by 7% by the end of Wednesday.
Bitcoin’s Uptober recovery hinges on reclaiming $116,000
Bitcoin seasonality remains in the spotlight as a disappointing “Uptober” draws to a close.
Peterson highlights the weekly chart, focusing on three specific seven-day periods.
Historical data indicates that since 2015, BTC has experienced three reliable successful weeks each year: one in October, and one each in February and March.
The October “golden week,” which concludes on Wednesday, has historically offered a 7% increase. BTC/USD reached this target ahead of schedule when it hit $116,000 on Tuesday but has since declined.
“October 29th marks the conclusion of one of Bitcoin’s three golden weeks, typically offering 7% gains during a seven-day period (the others being March and February),” Peterson noted.
Currently, golden-week gains are at approximately 4.5%, a disappointment for Bitcoin bulls who have witnessed October’s potential gains turn flat so far this month.
Despite this, Peterson suggests there’s still hope. Previous research on price seasonality indicates that the Bitcoin bull market is on track for new all-time highs exceeding $160,000 by December.
Bitcoin seasonality, which I have been tracking all year, is still aligning with the 30th percentile. This suggests a price of $162,000 in December. pic.twitter.com/oETxhuvLBz
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 20, 2025
Expectations for the Fed and China trade agreement
As Cointelegraph reports, various favorable conditions are aligning for crypto and risk assets as the month closes.
Related: Mt. Gox delays $4B Bitcoin repayments: Bullish or bearish impact on BTC price?
The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to pursue further interest rate cuts during its meeting on Wednesday, while the US and China negotiate a last-minute agreement to avoid significant trade tariffs.
Despite the recent dip, technical indicators for Bitcoin remain encouraging in the short term. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing a rebound on hourly charts after exhibiting a hidden bullish divergence.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading moves involve risk, and readers are encouraged to do their own research before making any decisions.
