For over ten years, Bitcoin investors have depended on the established four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations, and market changes influenced by halving events. In 2025, this traditional roadmap is starting to appear outdated—analysts are now looking for a new framework to gauge Bitcoin’s (BTC) future direction.
Some suggest that institutional capital is transforming the market, while others point to the diminishing effects of the halving, the emergence of AI as an alternative investment opportunity, and global liquidity trends that no longer align with previous patterns. Regardless of the reasons, one thing is evident: Bitcoin’s movements do not resemble its past behavior.
In an exclusive Cointelegraph interview, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the foundations of the four-year cycle, proposing that Bitcoin may be entering a significantly shorter and more dynamic two-year cycle.
Park contends that Bitcoin’s market structure has experienced a fundamental change, as institutional flows operate under different motivations compared to retail investors.
At the heart of Park’s argument is a compelling notion: shorter cycles could fundamentally alter how investors approach timing, volatility, and Bitcoin’s potential trajectory through 2026.
He also discusses why certain players favor short-term setbacks, how liquidity patterns interact with the new cycle, and what this shift could signify for the next substantial movement.
Watch the full interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his complete analysis of the two-year cycle theory and its potential implications for Bitcoin’s future.
