The latter half of the year has witnessed a significant rise in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the overall cryptocurrency market have faced some volatility and notable corrections.
With the Nasdaq recently breaching the 26,000 threshold, prominent analysts are suggesting that this achievement could signal Bitcoin’s potential to close the year at record levels.
What Historical Patterns Suggest
According to specialists at The Bull Theory, trends seen when the Nasdaq hits all-time highs generally indicate a liquidity influx, a rising risk appetite, and a shift of capital toward growth assets. As this pattern evolves, it often paves the way for a significant move by Bitcoin.
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Data gathered by analysts backs this claim. Traditionally, in the month following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has demonstrated an average increase of about 7%. This growth typically escalates to around 14% within 60 days and reaches an average of 25% by the three-month mark.
This trend is not a mere coincidence; it illustrates a shift in capital where liquidity transitions from established markets to higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.
The current environment seems to mirror this pattern. The Nasdaq’s ascent to 26,000 suggests a liquidity wave gathering momentum. As rate cuts commence and quantitative tightening nears an end, global capital is again in search of yield.
This scenario echoes the circumstances that led to Bitcoin’s major breakthroughs in past years, particularly during 2017, 2020, and 2023.
Consequently, analysts suggest that the forthcoming four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a possible pause in equities, which could result in crypto becoming the main avenue for liquidity.
Bitcoin Set For Breakout Analogue to 2020-2021 Cycle
Analysts, including Ash Crypto, have also observed on social platforms that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart showcases a recurring pattern akin to the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin notably outperformed traditional tech stocks. Historically, the October to March period has triggered significant upward movements in both cycles.
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Following a phase of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair seems ready for another breakout. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could experience substantial gains relative to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, as noted by Ash Crypto.
This positions the market for a notable rally, potentially driving Bitcoin prices beyond current highs of over $126,000. Nonetheless, the market remains marked by heightened volatility, leaving the future path for BTC uncertain.
The leading cryptocurrency currently trades at $113,350 after a 2% downturn in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial spike above $115,000. Thus, BTC is 6.5% below its all-time peak.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
