Is Bitcoin Approaching Its Peak? An Analyst Predicts When the Major Bull Run Might Conclude

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high over $124K earlier this month, but the momentum has quickly turned fragile. This week has seen significant market fluctuations, with the price temporarily dipping below $109K. Investors are hoping for a sustainable rally, but seasonal headwinds and other factors have impeded the asset’s growth.

Recent data indicates that the ongoing Bitcoin cycle is 93% complete, with a potential blow-off top expected between late October and mid-November 2025.

Final Surge

Crypto analyst Cryptobirb has cautioned that Bitcoin’s current bull market may be nearing its final stages, considering various factors such as historical trends, halving cycles, and seasonal influences. All indicators suggest a possible peak within the next 60 days.

According to Cryptobirb, Bitcoin is already 93% through its current bull cycle, which began following the 2024 halving on April 19. The analyst references previous bull run durations, noting that past cycles lasted 350 days (2010-2011), 746 days (2011-2013), 1,068 days (2015-2017), and 1,061 days (2018-2021).

The current cycle has lasted 1,007 days, with projections showing a peak could happen between 1,060 and 1,100 days, suggesting the expected top would be around late October to mid-November 2025.

The timing of halving strengthens this outlook. Cryptobirb highlighted that past bull cycles following halvings typically reached their peaks approximately 366 to 548 days later. Based on the April 2024 halving, the target peak window is between October 19 and November 20, 2025.

Analysing historical bear markets, the analyst warned that major corrections often follow these peaks. Previous bear markets lasted around 370-410 days with average losses near 66%.

No Capitulation Risk

Seasonality also plays a significant role. Cryptobirb noted that August and September have historically been weaker months for Bitcoin, while October and November usually experience the strongest performance, in line with the projected peak window. Technical indicators support this timing.

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin remains above its 50-week and 200-week simple moving averages at $97,094 and $52,590, respectively.

On-chain data appears robust. Mining costs are around $97,124, and profitability ratios suggest no immediate capitulation risk. The Non-Ultimate Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios indicate market stability, despite short-term corrections.

Institutional activity, particularly through ETFs, has shown some short-term outflows, with $194 million withdrawn in a single day on August 21, though overall positions continue to be substantial. Cryptobirb added that while these flows warrant observation, they are unlikely to disrupt the broader trend.

“Key takeaway is this: We’re 60 days away from Bitcoin’s historical blow-off window (Oct 15 – Nov 15, 2025); last October week. ETFs record outflows, but cycle + halving math + seasonality all point to Q4 grand finale.”