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The ongoing inquiry—whether a significant drop below $105,000 would signal the end of the Bitcoin bull market—has been met with a clear response from prominent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto). In a series of late-night messages to his 476,000 followers, he asserted that while $105,000 serves as a crucial level for the “most aggressive” upward trajectory, a fall below this mark wouldn’t necessarily halt the longer-term upward trend.
“No, if $105,000 is lost it’s not ‘over’ it simply means the most aggressive/bullish scenario is off the table and a deeper correction becomes much more probable,” he stated. “The high-time-frame (HTF) structure remains intact unless $74,000 is broken—all covered in my recent YouTube video, so before you question ‘why so low for HTF invalidation,’ check out the vid :).”
In another post, he reinforced the key pivot that has shaped his perspective for weeks: “$107-$110,000 has consistently been the MOST crucial area on the BTC chart… This is the most probable zone for a complete reversal—though it’s not guaranteed, it’s the optimal point to begin considering bearish positions.”
What Is the Lowest Bitcoin Price Possible?
His posts refer back to a YouTube video released two weeks ago, in which the analyst outlines three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s next movement. Two suggest a price reversal within or just below the current $107,000–$110,000 zone, while a third allows for a deeper correction without breaching the overarching uptrend.
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He emphasizes that the trend invalidation point for this cycle lies significantly lower—he specifies the “mid-$70,000s” as the critical level, and in one section, identifies formal invalidation at $74,000–$75,000—because that’s where the previous high-time-frame impulse originated, marking the area where the market would, according to Elliott-wave theory, invalidate the broader five-wave structure. This context is why falling below $105,000 would represent a slowdown in momentum rather than a definitive structural breakdown.
Within his framework, “Scenario 1”—the notion that the price is still navigating a compact fourth-wave pause within an existing impulse—has, by his own account, lost likelihood. The extended corrective movement has persisted too long and retraced too deeply in relation to its second-wave counterpart; classically, this suggests it doesn’t fit as a fourth wave. The critical threshold for that scenario was $110,000; once that level was reclaimed and then exceeded downwards during the correction, the symmetry of the count unraveled.
“Scenario 2,” his favored bullish scenario, interprets the rally from approximately $105,000 as the initial completed five-wave impulse of a new ascent. In this analysis, the market is currently engaged in a wave-two pullback with invalidation firmly placed at $105k.
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The implications are both numerical and structural: if wave one spanned around $20,000 top to bottom, a conventional third wave would be larger, potentially reaching at least the mid-$130,000s before a fourth-wave pause and a final fifth wave push into the $150,000-plus range. This is why he describes $107,000–$110,000 as “the best risk-to-reward ratio for longs,” marking the last high-probability area for a reversal before invalidation occurs.
“Scenario 3” retains the broader correction from May to the present. In this scenario, the breakout above range highs was corrective instead of impulsive—what technicians term a three-leg rise with overlap—and the market is still expected to undergo a deeper sweep into demand.
He distinguishes between two patterns: a running flat that holds the lows from June/July and finds support within a purple band between ~$103,000 and ~$98,000, and an expanded flat that dips below those lows, reaching the daily demand block that “began at nearly $98k,” which price “front-ran… at 98.2k” before rebounding. In both scenarios, the overarching high-time-frame theory remains intact, as the structural invalidation stays significantly lower at $74k–$75k.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $110,019 after reaching an intraday low of $108,666.
Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart source: TradingView.com
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